Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I almost didn't post because I was thinking that we have over-talked the corn market and I am a little confused by the mixed signals and the direction, down.
But I would like to point out that, to borrow a football analogy we are really only at the start of the second half. If planting is the first quarter, growing the second, harvest the third and marketing the fourth there is still plenty of time in this game.
Now we hear about 230 bu/A corn in Mississippi and 3 mile truck lines and it sounds fantastic. Well lets put that in to perspective. Even if all of Mississippi's 900,000 acres goes 230 bu. that is 208 million bu. but my guess is that the average isn't going to be that. And this 3 miles of trucks, well it better be. Three miles of trucks (1000 bu/truck & 80 ft/truck) is 198 trucks. To fill a tow of 15- 1500 ton barges you need 800 trucks to get the 800,000 bushel and if you're in a race to get that corn up river before the price drops I'd get that organized myself because unloading 800 trucks at even 15 min per truck is 200 hrs. or 8 days.
Second unlike last year this corn crop really has died the death of a thousand cuts. For example, here in NY with 750,000 prospective planted acres and 150 bu/A yield ( USDA's prediction) we could maybe have produced 110 million bushel. But as I have already pointed out some of that didn't get planted and a great deal of what did suffers from wet feet. About the time it stopped raining in Iowa it started here and has rained all summer.
Six weeks ago I took a road trip halfway across the state and I could see the effects of too much water. Two weeks ago a neighbor travel all the way across and reported the same. Yesterday a seed salesman stopped and he complained that he was having trouble finding good roadside spots to put up his signs, too much wet-footed corn next to the road. (I didn't have too much sympathy because he mentioned another price increase.) A month ago you couldn't really tell how much damage might be done but this week, the first week in Sept. the corn is just starting to ripen and the effects are becoming apparent as yellow corn with half sized ears.
I don't know but if I had to guess I would be more inclined to say the ave. yield will be 120 bu/A or less rather than the 150 booked by the market.
Putting this into the context of the news from Iowa, Nebraska and elsewhere despite predictions to the contrary this crop is only going to be average at best. Now it may take another four months for this to be discovered but this crop is worth more than $4 easy and very probably $5+.
In the words of another, "Patience, Grasshopper."
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Ugliest of Them All
