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Buxton ND | 1234 the info that's being made public right now is the SAME info made public last summer that gave the funds there reasons to buy sending corn and beans to new all time record highs.We saw the fun side of the fund last summer,,,now we're seeing their ugly side....No its not what anyone whats to see,but it is what it is.
I've posted hard data publicly available on fund money flow,its the cold hard FACTS of what has happened to our markets,MUCH more so in corn,NET SELLING this week after last weeks little positive #'s. This is not a bullish or bearish slant/twist/talking anyone's positions,,,,,its cold hard facts,available to anyone in the general public. Now lets look forward,report next week,harvest starting and generally better then expected yields. IMO its UN-likly the fund money is gonna jump on the bullish corn band wagon at this time and testing contract lows is more likely then testing $5
Beans is a different deal,,,funds adding money for 4 weeks,3 weeks of pretty large numbers,which lead to a 2.48 straight rally in 3 week rally,low to high. Yes its not $17-18 like last summer but its still quite a rally. IDK where they going from here but I have 13 bpa per acre sold cash on Tuesday. Not gonna sit holding the bag if China starts playing games with the 2013 beans,like 2012
$4.50 is the line in the sand that has to hold corn on ZCZ,IF yields are better then expected as harvest expands (think 2012),toss in some hedge pressure as funds are still willing seller,,,hit sell stops,,,plus some net new selling and this could get ugly really fast unless USDA has a bullish news next week. I'm not saying sell OR store just giving you my views from what i see from the tech/numbers side of the fence.
Now that $2.48 rally was in US DOLLARS,NOT REALS..........One month ago estimates had Brazil beans acres/hectare increasing 5%ish,with what happened in the last month,IMVSO that 5% is laughable now............. I'll put a case of beer there's a lot extra containers of bean seed heading to SA as a type. A carrot the size of Texas is dangling (flat beans price plus corn/bean ratio) in front of our counter parts in SA as the 2012 talk "we're gonna run out of beans" starts again in 2013.
Back to corn my local FH Sept cash corn bid dropped .50 yesterday,that's saying we have enough corn til new crop and those end users will be a picking the flesh from the bones anyone that needs/has/wants to sell "of the combine". They have fought this super strong basis for months,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,there will be pay back time...
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What do you think would happen if production information was treated as proprietary.
