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Marketing strategies #2
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iseedit
Posted 1/15/2013 07:40 (#2823946 - in reply to #2823803)
Subject: RE: Marketing strategies #2



central - east central Minnesota -

Pat H - 1/15/2013 06:34 I've already established I'm too chicken to not sell when I hit my target. My targets are very conservative since I really do need to sell some going into harvest ($10 is a nice target, but if it isn't expected to get there it's not really a plan that can be implemented) - or change my whole business plan and borrow 2x much to cover fall bills, but the whole paying it back thing takes away the fun in that for me. Next, like was pointed out in posts about posts by brady f, speculation on a conservative scale could add to the sale price. For me options tend to be insurance and very few times did I lift the hedge and take profit. Therefore I think of options as just ways of funding boats and bmw's for traders. However, now I wonder if a more conservative approach might work - for example, it's clear that corn is tight and depending on media spin will get tighter. There are 2 plays I see - 1. buy cheap out of the money calls - $9 july call for 6 cents and hope for fire works - call gains 25 cents, sell, be happy. 2. spend more and stay closer to the money - $8 July is 18 cents - will respond faster if/when something happens and should return more, but it costs 3x as much (could make $1 though). Part of the problem is that while trying to add a few dimes and nickels to my sale price, I could just as easily be taking away dimes and nickels. Maybe isn't good strategy on options, but in my opinion, if the option is showing a profit it won't be for long and I'm best to take it (even if I'm sure I'll win the lottery by waiting one more day). I guess I don't see playing the daily/weekly churn in the market as a winner very often, but if I know something about the market (we're short), the chances of a profitable outcome are better. Interestingly, the trade knows more than me, yet will react wildly just the same if the news hits right.


It takes much, much disapline to exicute such strategies ..  . ..
if you do buy opitions, you should consider setting the sell order at the same price. (liquidation order would be your target price to get out of the option).
I tend to agree with your observation of helping traders make payments on their boats/beemers/islands -
It is possible, the market could trade sideways and corn will trade on basis ($6 dollar futures but, $8 dollar cash)  . . . . .
That wouldn't acheive your targets or goals ~

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