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Watched Dust bowl on public TV last night
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/19/2012 18:19 (#2706235 - in reply to #2705910)
Subject: RE: Rainfall and outlook.


"Our longterm avg. is around 17.5"."

Golly.. I wondered what farming "out west" was like.. hmmm... guess now maybe I know "a little" HA!!  If THIS is NORMAL.. AAARRRGGGGHHH!!!

The thing is you can raise something on 17.5".. it's just that you can't DO THE THINGS that you can DO with 28" or even 33" years.. and that is what is taking time to adjust to.  "Normally" we have to plow or farm our wheat stubble into the ground in order to get good seed to soil contact with the drill to establish a good stand for the next crop..  Not in these conditions.

So we are trying to adjust.


Seeding rates.. hybrids.. day length of maturities.. fertility programs.. the AMOUNT of fertility.. too much can be just as bad as not enough.. etc.  Not to mention tillage practices and programs. 

Some don't have the tools that they need.. aka a sprayer.. or reduced tillage implements.. maybe an older disc that doesn't do quite as good a job in a single pass setting.. etc.  We just traded for a nice Heavy disk that we can sock in the ground and roll it out in one pass.. then stay off and make a sprayer pass on the next flush of weeds.. etc.. my point is that it takes $$$ to have the RIGHT TOOL for the condtitions.. and these are not normal conditions.

One of the complicating factors of the dust bowl was that people were broke.. or in debt.. or both.. and so like a batter who is behind in the count they started swinging at everything in order to get on base.  A bumper crop the previous year was actually a bad thing as it depressed prices below the cost of production for the next year's crop.. when others NEEDED the $$$ to pay bills on their own drought reduced crops.  And so they placed their bets that "next year" would be better.. only things progressively spiraled out of control.

If we farmed now like they did then.. yes we would have problems.. but "for the most part" everyone has done a real good job of holding onto residue.. and spending the $$$ to spray ground vs work it.. (golly I got the disk why PAY someone ELSE to spray to kill weeds?..  because then it won't blow..etc.)   A lot of it just comes down to guessing right.. "IF it rains"..  then you can get away with doing stuff.. in a 28" climate that you can't in a 17.5" climate.

Also I believe that we have had good policy where they have allowed people to graze/hay CRP acres.. and they may need to continue to look at things like that.. to do everything possible to provide feedstuffs at a reasonable price to go along with the costs.  I used to say that we had good ground in the CRP that could be farmed.. now alot of that has come out.. some is still in.. but there's also.. "golly I didn't mean THAT one.. that needs to STAY.." so there may need to be another sign up.. after things straighten out to re-sign fragile lands back into the program.  We still have room to farm what used to be pasture ground and pasture what used to be CRP.. everyone just needs to make the right arangements with landowners and tenets..etc..   Some of this CRP was bought as a spec play and for hunting.. now as that ground passes hands to a next generation.. maybe a rancher.. farmer will get another shot at it.. and some should be grazed.. and yes some can be farmed.. IF the guy knows what he is doing..

Fortunately HERE...  we have a really good crop of guys who REMEMBER the stories from their Fathers and Grandfathers what and HOW things can go wrong.. and like I said.. "are doing a pretty good job."


I don't know WHAT you do with 4.34" and I hope I never find out.. is there a market for tumbleweeds? 


Anywho.. every day that passes is another day closer to the end of this.. and golly I'm ready.   

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