Great presentation. Thanks for the link. I agree with about 95% of what he says.

He uses the logic that we have a debt based system so hyperinflation can't happen (if I understood him correctly). Here is a better answer to that than I can give.

"In Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe the central bank was just loaning money into existence.    However, those governments could not pay it back but kept borrowing more and more.    The US central government debt has gone from like $9 trillion to $16 trillion in the last 4 years. During the hyperinflation people talk about the central bank is buying government bonds to stimulate the economy, stabilize interest rates, or show faith in the government.  After the hyperinflation is all over, people forget about the central bank buying bonds and just talk about how the government was just printing and spending money.  The historical narrative simplifies out the central bank so it becomes much clearer and looks so foolish.  However, this simplification makes is so that the next victim of hyperinflation does not see they are doing the same thing.   They think of the historical hyperinflations as just stupidly printing and spending money while their current government is just borrowing it.    So the same mistake is repeated again and again."

Here is the full article the above quote is from.

I think somehow he assumes that Weimar did not have a central bank "loaning" the money into existence like we do. They did. That fact is usually overlooked. He also said that "laws would have to be changed for that to happen but you can never rule that out" (or something to that effect). He is right. We have a legal debt limit and the debt limit would have to be expanded for the government to spend more money than they have. We will find out if they will expand that debt limit fairly soon. The other thing he ignores is the dollars already in existence throughout the world. It is my contention there is already more than enough money in the system without the creation of any more for hyperinflation to occur. It would be very unlikely to ever start without additional money creation, but only the right spark would be needed to ignite the fire. There is already plenty of tinder and gasoline readily available to create a monetary inferno. That does not mean it will happen, just that the conditions are there FOR it to happen. As far as his comment about the government sending everybody a check for $500,000 then hyperinflation would happen, I say the money is already there............. it is called the bond market. The bond market dwarfs the commodity and stock markets. A run away from bonds is all it would take. Massive sale of bonds would force the Fed to monetize all the existing bonds that people and/or foreign governments were selling. If they didn't interest rates would go to the moon. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. If interest rates went to the moon, the government would have to borrow more and the Fed monetize more to cover the interest due. Either way the pooch would be screwed. My opinion.

Watch the bond market. It is the key.

He also said conventional wisdom is almost always wrong. Food for thought.

John