| RayJenkins - 7/12/2012 17:12
Considering the developing situation in "corn country" where we rarely have crop disasters, there just might be a strong need to trim back corn for ethanol use by 500 myn to 1 byn depending on the un-determined severity......
now, if you do that over a 10-12 month period, you minimize the issues with raising gas prices for a variety of reasons........if you wait until spring/summer, you risk having to do a lot of cutting in a short period of time.....and I will guarantee you that latter strategy will be the source of serious heartburn for RFS advocates
Ray J
Isn't the market in the process of doing this very thing right now?
I assume that it's "all hands on deck" for the rest of the summer driving season.. Probably want to let as much run as possible.. harvest will be starting soon this year as we have been ahead of schedule all year.
I believe that the 2012/13 corn carry-in is probably growing as the market "works." Maybe the EPA could take a note from the Fed and do a QE on RIN's.. up to the shortfall that you say is out there...??? Golly do we want to give gov't THAT much power...???
I will argue that etoh has worked.. is part of the solution.. is part of the reason that the US has become a refined fuels exporter recently. Good Policy serves us well.. I'm glad that we ended the subsidies and rely.. as much as possible.. upon market signals. We were right to forsee the benefits of a high octane product to the current supply of heavy Crude that yields a lower product then could be obtained from the refinery of 30 years ago..
According to Robert Rapier, we've got A LOT more harder to crack.. Heavy Crude in our future.. the pool of "light and sweet" is diminishing.
I agree with my good friend Ray Jenkins.. and stand with him in this hour of uncertainty.. I just want to "walk through" options so that we don't do anything too rash.. Let's take measured steps at this time as a lot of hard work and effort has gone into reaching this point. My merchandiser friends say they may need to make room for as much as 90 bu dryland corn.. here in a couple of weeks.. The neighbors have some good looking crops.. It's not a universal good crop here.. but it is better than last year at this point.
I do believe that Kansas may indeed raise enough production to sustain what we are doing.
Afterall there is probably a reason our forefathers made the state motto.. "Ad Astra per Aspera".. or.. "Through hardships to the stars." |
Will take more than $8 corn
