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Central Illinois | can find corn that looks as good as that, especially at six in the morning. Perhaps that is from Leon Corzines field that will only make 150 bushel this year instead of its' normal 250. However, that is not typical, and if that picture was taken at 6 p.m., it might look greatly different. In broad terms, south of I-70 is silage corn. From there north to I-74 (roughly) is corn that will make 50 to 150. The jury is still out on corn north of there, although I suspect most farmers would be thrilled with their APH yield. However, the line of poor yields is moving north every day. NO ONE has said we will zero out as a state, but if you think Illinois at say 140 (optimistically IMHO) will pull very many states up, you may be on the wrong horse.
As far as marketing this crop, I sold a bunch of corn last August at over $7 Sept. futures, since rolled to Dec. at -5 cents. Cargill Propricing has some sold for me at $6, they usually do better, but I need a yardstick to compare myself to. I have no intention of lifting any of my hedges, although a month ago I thought about rolling some Dec 12 hedges to Dec 13 at even money. I did buy some cheap calls though, and cashed them out Friday at a nice profit. I plan on using that money to buy some puts, soon I think, although not today. Probably this week. I agree, buying back hedges only sounds good in the early stages of a rally. I am afraid now is to late. If anyone has sold to much, call your elevator and start working on plans. | |
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just a couple things this morning before I start back home
