Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | Politics aside the Fed wouldn't move until mid 2014, but that will be an election season so they won't raise interest rates for the first time in 6 years durring the throws of an election. Fed won't move until 2015.
Things are relatively calm in Europe and the U.S. 10 year is at 1.75%. Thought I was being smart 6 months ago and "called" a bottom on the 10 year at 1.79%. Shortly after it went all the way down to 1.50% and that was just on Spanish based news.
Someday we will wake up and hear that Finland and the Netherlands have decided to leave the E.U. because somehow France convinced Germany to go for Eurobonds and keep Greece in the Euro and they don't want to pay the bill for Franco-laziness or Greek tax evasion. This scenario (or any other equally confusing, generally unforeseen but not entirely unpredicted scenario) could push 10 treasury year rates into the sub 1% world.
Nothing is guaranteed in this world, but I actually think we could take another leg down, 3/4% or more, before interest rates bottom. Even then I think it could be an extended bottom until some equally unforeseen event (going back to the gold standard, California falling into the Ocean, Canada buying the the United States from China) sucks all the liquidity out of the economy and we're back to 80's style interest pain. |
interest rates ?
