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| My thoughts are that the enduser is hoping for the bearish report to get the needs they have not yet taken care of covered. I remember the 1983 market very well.
It was wild. If there was news that made the market open down hard it would end the day limit up or near. There were some days it would open limit up (30cents), go limit down
and then end up limit up again which would completely clean up all the stops. We haven't seen anything anywhere near the volatility yet this year and the crop conditions fully warrant
that type of action but it hasn't. My feeling is that there are just a boatload of endusers that are froze. They don't know what to do. (I Don't want anybody to think that I am making
fun of them by what I am saying because I've been there) When they finally realize that they need to do SOMETHING more the volatility will be unreal. Without looking at an old chart
I remember that the last couple days before the 4th of July beans had a few fairly strong days. The first trading day after the 4th the market gapped up and took off (around 6.00 to 6.25)
As each passing day went by the volatility increased until the first week of September ending with 3 limit up days and opening the 4th day limit up on Sept.9 (my birthday) at 9.63 and ending
up limit down. That was a 50% + move in 60 some days. That is how a lot of bull markets in other commodities ended years back, by having 3 mostly limit up days and then a big reversal day/week. Same on the downside moves. When I see posts on here suggesting that we are about done with this run I have trouble believing that simply because of the minor volatility compared to that. Weeks ago when MarkWright mentioned a possible target I had no trouble at all wrapping my mind around that as it was well within the % move that the 83 market had. One thing that may be different and influencing the volatility is
the much longer trading hours that we have today compared to then. There may not be the time pressure element coming into play. I also think that if the dollar would happen to have a reversal week there
will be so much fuel under the bean market that the top put in will be like the top in 1974 that stood as the market record for many many years. Buford | |
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what's next for grain prices
