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John Burns
Posted 2/2/2012 13:10 (#2201182 - in reply to #2200827)
Subject: bonds a good investment?????



Pittsburg, Kansas

Depends on the real rate of return. He most likely bought bonds or CD's after Paul Volker raised the interest rate to double digits. I remember my dad putting lots of money into long term CD's at rates over 15%. Fantastic deal when he was cashing checks getting 15% income and interest rates had dropped back to 5-8%.

Had bonds been bought before Paul Volker whipped inflation with interest rates several points above the inflation rate, bonds would have been a very, very, very bad investment.

Bonds are a good investment when they are paying a rate that is above the inflation rate or in an environment where rates are falling. Think rates are going to continue to fall below zero or one quarter percent? So rates are not likely to fall. Fed stated inflation rate is near 3% if you use their CPI number and bonds are paying........nothing. Definitely not paying more than inflation is stealing buying power. This is not a good environment for bonds. Things have only one way to go from here and it is not for the better in the bond market.

If the housing market looked like a big bubble, and if the dot com stock market looked like a bubble, the sovereign bond market is the mother of all bubbles.

This is not going to end well.

John



Edited by John Burns 2/2/2012 13:15
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