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JonSCKs
Posted 2/2/2012 09:39 (#2200841 - in reply to #2200696)
Subject: Riding the waves..


That's a great lookback at history.. I've read old farm magazines before and marveled at how things got so out of control.. I did this in school during the late 1980's when everything was a bust.. $1.85 corn.. Land at $650/acre.. farm foreclosures..etc.. 

"Man what were they thinking?"

It's almost "deja vue.. all over again."

We are in an unsustainable bubble right now.. There are already economic warnings going off foretelling of another slow down in the economy.  I believe we need to bleed a little air out of the commodity bubble.. would you rather see Corn go higher only to Crash later.. or.. would you give up a little now in order to have a softer landing..??

I'm just scared that we are seeing a lot of similarities to the 2008 crash.. we are rallying head long into bankruptying our demand base in an economy that "could" be slowing...??

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46232025

If we would just "ease our foot off" the accelerator a little and coast for awhile and let the economy heal up..

Then maybe we can do a better job of "holding it together."

The ECRI has made a recession call.. they are out on their own a little and I don't want to link it as some might get a little spooked.. We don't have to crash things.. we just need to slow down a little and catch our breath.. let the economy recover and heal up.. Like someone who broke their foot or arm.. we are trying to come back too fast.. take a little time.. and "ease back into things."  Then we can go to work rebuilding what was lost.. we're trying to come back too fast right now... imho..

Fertilizer and Energy prices are going to come down.. as are costs for other things.. IF they try to rally things.. THEN it's all gonna blow..(see 2008..) be patient and wait for lower input prices.. and get ready to sell in a lower market.  I understand that the droughts and production shortfalls are making things "bumpy" but one way or the other it's demand that pulls the wagon.. when you've overworked the horses.. the wagon comes to a halt.

Anyone else see the movie "Warhorse?" that's what I'm talking about here..  We need a little common sense right now..  "rest the horses."

We can do this one of two ways.. we know what's coming.. everyone can give a little at a time.. or we can ALL jump over the cliff together.

Which is it gonna be?

I believe we can make a stand.. take a little less.. produce a little more.. and keep the horses well watered and fed.. some times you gotta take a break though and "rest the horses"...now is one of those times... imho.

"I could be wrong."

Great thread btw.. "those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

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