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Fairbury, NE (Southeast) | If you go even further back to the late 1880's, the late teens, the late 40's....there was always high priced periods. Hell people paid for farms in a couple years back in the late 40's. It all really does boil down to supply and demand...whether S/D is real (exports) or somewhat artificial. (ethanol. CRP)
Agree with most of your points except the U.S. being a high cost producer. Sure Land costs are sky high. But efficiency wise we take a back seat to no one. Compared to China or India, we produce for far less/bushel. Due to their geography this is unlikely to change. Five years from now S.A. may overtake us, but they aren't there yet. As they continue to improve infrastructure, and we sit pat, they will bury the world in grain. I'm not bullish commodities after four or five more years.
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Reason for market volatility?
