So I got a call from the lady at the National Ag Statistics Service.  She wanted to know if she could come out to one of my wheat fields and take random yield estiments through the growing season.  I told her ok and then I kept an eye out for stakes marking the field.   She told me on the phone that the spots were random and at different ends of the field.   So I found the stakes,  they are about 75 foot apart and both in the best looking wheat I have and probably some of the best in the county.  I guess I will yield in the High 20s to Low 30s this year and the county will be less than that.   The spot she picked is closer to 75 to 100bu/ac.   It just happened to be a wide draw through the field that catches all the runoff and I always double up the Fertilizer there just to see how good the wheat can get. 

So when the USDA came out with surprising new higher yield estiments for NE Colorado it kind of made me think that maybe these test plots aren’t so random.