|
| 2nd that, Its always nice to hear the insights from someone on the other side of the table.
Not disagreeing with anything here, just my opinon or theory(which isn't worth two cents) is that the inverted market should normally come from a short crop tight supplies and the market having intentions of a big comming crop to rebuild supplies down the pipeline. I really don't see that the case here, this market is mostly demand driven not a crop failure(yes 10 was a little short but no disaster)
13.5BB demand and prior record crop of 13.1BB and a 600MB carryout, Its hard to be bearish the 11 crop. If we don't ration the 11 demand we have to grow about .5BB over the prior record just to hold a 6-700MB carryout. I just think this market needs to be just as concerned(actually more) with the 11 crop and getting the acres then the tight supplies today because anything short of a 13.6BB crop next year is only going to be worse. yes there might be pockets that are short of corn this year but thats what basis is for, we got transportation we arn't going to runout of corn before harvest unless china comes to take it.
The bean market is kinda a example of this over the last few years and for the most part has been invereted, and has been fighting tight carryouts since 07 and never built carryout because it never bids the new crop and if it wasn't for the 09fall and wet spring last year which probably got 2million or so acres donated to it because of delayed planting we would be looking at nearly a 0 carryout this year with near record yields. I guess all i'm trying to say i think we got ourselves to a point where these tight supplies are more then a "short term problem"
Edited by MRK 4/4/2011 22:59
| |
|
Corn futures in June of 2008
