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| Drawing upon my youth and the period I spent as a bricklayer's mud mixer & all around gofer & apprentice mason a masonry wall can be constructed with (1) face brick & hollow tile (2) face brick & common brick (3) face brick veneer (4) face brick & hadite block (5) face brick & concrete block--each combo results in different load carrying factors.
Speculating in futures is an exercise in perceptions of a situation based loosely upon fact; at some future point facts & perceptions converge.
Following an extended period of reviewing known factors, listing the probable events & listing the possible events; there exist monetary possibles, fiscal possibles, political possibles extended by an administration viewed as a failure crashing head on with the political possibles extended by the minority which I fear tend to be aligned more towards ensuring failure than recovery & then I look strictly at the facts upon the table. In the world from which I spent the majority of my life you get to sit at the table with others of success if you express opinion supported by fact; if you have an opinion, but lack factual support--you weren't allowed to sit at the table.
Age & experience is often a drawback. I try to remain on the cutting edge and remain objective..it is a young person's game.
There was a period in my career when my daily thoughts about the corn market were messaged by Telex throughout the free Western world as well as the Communist countries by an Asian international trading company. Therein was a responsibility to be objective.
I believe in professional marketing utilizing options, traditional hedges or swaps. I DO NOT WANT TO TRANSFORM good marketers into speculators.
Therefore, for the period of the next month or so, I will post the bulk of my market thoughts onto the website http://www.perspicuousrisk.com/
which means to read my views will be more of a voluntary action--I see a variety of alternatives on the horizon...if meshed into a perfect storm (50-50) combined with well-intended (??!!) Government actions...it will be the user of agricultural products who will need an advisor.....producers may be able to just sit- we have entered a high risk & after laying out 73 pages of materials for an Asian client I have concluded we may well enter a period of HIGH RISK but also opportunity for HIGH REWARD...as usual, Murphy lurks.
Therefore, except for the website I will be low key over ag talk for the next month. As reference to the beginning story about masonry walls, we are at this moment either constructing a face brick-hadite block wall or a face brick-concrete block wall all without a blueprint & while I believe the wall will carry a heavy load, I may be wrong and it may be only a wall supported by hadite.
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WALLS
