Amherst WI | DeereMan97 - 3/12/2024 21:35
Hey, I’m not saying it’s true, I’m just saying that a multi billion dollar corporation doesn’t often have mistakes, more often than not their “mistakes” are happy little accidents that always seem to benefit them. I’m sure I’m probably wrong, it’s just weird that any other year there’s plenty available but on the year with high seed corn prices and lower market prices they justify their high prices with supply chain issues….. man, i haven’t heard that story in the last 3 years!
I can assure you they have lots of mistakes, many mistakes cost them millions and even billions. You underestimate the number of complete idiots that work in demand planning and supply management that know absolutely nothing about farming and since it's a big company their mistakes are not noticed until they have been promoted twice into a new role or "failed up" as we used to say.
Let me tell you a hypothetical story that could happen at any big seed company.
DSM's start making sales forecasts 18+ months out from planting the seed crop. These are based on previous sales data, what they feel their area will sell, recommendations from product managers of what the new products are (usually at this point there is very little known about the hybrids other than maturity, so you need to guess how much of the new corn you will sell without knowing anything about it and 70% of the time it's over promised and underdelivered for yield). So the DSM make their forecasts as good as they can based on the info they have.
After that happens somewhere at the big seed company they are sold out of everything decent from 100-107 day grain corn. Some putz in supply management sees a pile of 104 day BMR. Since this corn is here, the demand planning forecast is "weighted" to reflect the seed acres grown for next year. The DSM needed 10,000 bags in this maturity of grain corn, but the demand planner that doesn't know the difference between sweet corn and pop corn or grain corn just shaved 1500 bags off the DSM forecast of new production to account for the old pile of BMR they want used up but doesn't understand that its not a grain corn.
Now we are in the last half of planting. Oh no, big replant needs to happen down south. Now there was ample supply of 90-100 day corn that is going to be burnt up plating wet holes, so they flood out again. That wasn't accounted for anywhere in anyone's budget now it's even shorter.
We haven't even got to the part where seed yield is less than expected, derecho, or the germ dies after it's in a bag and needs to be recalled.
Seed companies try not to carry seed over since it's an expensive asset sitting there that loses quality over time, if they have too much it costs a fortune. If they have too little it costs sales. |
Corn seed availability?
