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turbo diesal
Posted 2/26/2024 05:49 (#10640198 - in reply to #10639623)
Subject: RE: Cattle chart...


Spikes - 2/25/2024 19:46

Trying to forecast based upon fundamentals is just opinion. That is not reliable for we all have good days and bad days. The trend is proven by the analysis

The question is when will those fundamentals finally mean something?

That is where the computer comes in. No opinions...just the trend.

The only possible way to forecast any market is (1) by means of a quantitative model never fundamentally; and (2) such a model cannot work on a single market in isolation.

It boils down to public confidence. 





Its not about having good days and bad days. But good months and years. Deciding when to expand, when to hedge and when to sell. When looking at the markets its much more reliable to look out 6 months and try to make a estimation than what the market will do in 1 day. Its not easy and no one is always right but it is worth putting effort to. What little use there is for technical analysis will be is more for those with the most highly sophisticated business IE large trading firms meat packing plants etc not the farmer. They will have always have more computers more pencil pushers and more inside information to be able to push something like TA to its limit that someone with a farm cannot do.And when they firgure out TA and act on it they will act against "public opinion" thus negating these charts. Cargil is going to outcompete someone with a 1000 acres in TA.

Public opinion doesn't decide how many bushels of corn there are to feed or calves born spring.

What good are these charts to someone who is actually farming and not trying to swing the trade commodities market? A farmer or rancher would get more useful information looking at the entrails of a butchered cows from a meat packing plant and trying to figure out what they are eating then these garbage charts.



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