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EC SD | Let's have a short recap:
USDA Jan WASDE:
1) reduced yields a tiny bit in Brazil from historic drought in MG (during pod fill stage)
2) offset that yield reduction with yield increases in southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina based on amble rains there (during vegetative development)
Now the weather has reversed and good rains in MG (as bean are maturing and being harvested), and hot in dry in the southern areas (as they are starting pod fill). The bullseye for hot and dry is the primary growing areas which are at their critical pod fill time.
BTW - I really don't ever recall the USDA raising bean yield forecasts here in the USA during June or July, so not sure why they did it in SA. O that is right, they needed to keep their SA total production to 0.1 mmt gain from Dec forecast to avoid a price rally... | |
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Market comments - outside up days & key reversals
