Posted 10/13/2021 08:01 (#9266307 - in reply to #9266101) Subject: Lets look at possible May Wasde numbers
I project price based on guessing the usda's next move so when I get a descent handle on old crop production I start looking at projecting the May wasde. If we get 90 million acres of corn(reduction of 3) at 180.5 yield that would keep carryout about the same at 1.5. So that said I see support in corn near term. Soybeans I could see getting 90 million acres at a 52 bushel national would add roughly 200 million to carryout. With demand on soy already lackluster by fall of next year soybeans could easily have a carryout north of 600 million. Everyone needs to recognize the shift in demand and protect themselves, this is not the market of a year ago.
Edit: just looked and some daily sales of soy to china, hopefully they start seeing some value and get serious quick.