Your missing the larger point IMHO I don't care whether it goes up or down to me that is not the purpose of a person wanting to own it.

Who cares about 4 years, I'm thinking in terms beyond my time allotment here.

Same as with buying insurance I don't buy it to get paid money back every year I buy it to prevent the complete loss of things I want to protect

NEVER in recorded history has it been worth ZERO the same cannot be said for fiat currencies. 

John has made this comparison before about how an oz of gold compares to say a high end mens suit and also how it relates to land.