Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Did the speculators add longs because of the dry conditions and then reverse course because it turn wet? The amount of corn farmers expected to plant wouldn't be important if there were solid prospects for poor conditions. In which case all the funds would have to do is monitor the medium term weather forecast and they would have two'ss week notice before the small speculators caught on. Plenty of time to get safe.
My own sense is the speculators, especially the big speculators don't move unless it is a sure thing. The real speculators in this business are the farmers. The funds have plenty of time to make their move and it would be foolish for them to move any sooner than necessary. If they are short their risk now is minimal actually less than minimal, I'm sure they got a little surprise with the last report but probably they didn't get hurt much. And it will take more than a little weather scare 3 months before planting to get them seriously concerned.
Edited by 1234 1/20/2014 14:43
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Drought and the Spec Funds
