| Weekly ethanol production was.. "good" again this past week at 919 thousand barrels PER DAY | 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 848 | 09/13 | 838 | 09/20 | 832 | 09/27 | 875 | | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 869 | 10/18 | 897 | 10/25 | 911 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 902 | 11/08 | 927 | 11/15 | 904 | 11/22 | 927 | 11/29 | 913 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 944 | 12/13 | 928 | 12/20 | 926 | 12/27 | 913 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 919 | | | | | | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W Refiner and Blenders net input (domestic demand) was a marketing year low at 756 thousand barrels Per Day | 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 834 | 09/13 | 842 | 09/20 | 852 | 09/27 | 846 | | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 857 | 10/18 | 851 | 10/25 | 870 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 859 | 11/08 | 874 | 11/15 | 853 | 11/22 | 837 | 11/29 | 837 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 826 | 12/13 | 827 | 12/20 | 876 | 12/27 | 808 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 756 | | | | | | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w So the stocks.. we got a build here at 16,138 thousand barrels | 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 16,269 | 09/13 | 16,178 | 09/20 | 15,613 | 09/27 | 15,509 | | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 15,390 | 10/11 | 15,419 | 10/18 | 15,499 | 10/25 | 14,961 | | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 15,165 | 11/08 | 15,153 | 11/15 | 15,083 | 11/22 | 15,022 | 11/29 | 15,124 | | 2013-Dec | 12/06 | 15,448 | 12/13 | 15,625 | 12/20 | 15,660 | 12/27 | 15,582 | | | | | | 2014-Jan | 01/03 | 16,138 | | | | | | | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W So 919 - 756 = 163 with a stocks build of (16,138 -15,582 / 7 =) 79 = 84 thousand barrels per day that went towards exports vs 116 last week. Another good week on the exports. Possible that domestic demand was hindered by weather.. ??? 756 domestic + 84 = 840 disappearance vs last weeks 924 is down from previous weeks and below the 907'ish number USDA is using.
stocks target of 20,000 by summer driving season - 16,138 = 3,862 / 95 days = 40.65 needed per week.. back on track.
fwiw.. "Cheers."
edit add: btw here are the ethanol exports updated by EIA which is in thousand barrels
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,407 | 975 | 976 | 814 | 839 | 1,190 | 1,288 | 1,267 | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M
As well as imports.. in thousand barrels PER DAY (golly why don't they STANDARDIZE this? Do it in barrels like exports above or vice versa..??) | 2010 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 2011 | 0 | | | | | 2 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 16 | 24 | 36 | | 2012 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 27 | 33 | 60 | 63 | 61 | 66 | 40 | | 2013 | 31 | 10 | 37 | 14 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 37 | 23 | 7 | | |
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MFEIMUS2&f=M
which was used in the RFA chart above.. fwiw. EIA updated last week or sometime.. so my "went somewhere" data is legit. ;-)
Back to the weekly production #'s above.. Through 18 weeks we are sitting at 896.72 production.. and USDA upped their number to 907'ish.. and this is the off season.. so.. ?? "In the ball park" as we have been at or above that number and fighting the weather to do it. Yipper.. "looking good so far."
So as the ethanol price fell this fall.. on the new cheaper corn values.. NET Ethanol exports Surged.. and Ethanol stocks fell... "hmmm." Golly Virginia, there really is an ethanol export market.
Edited by JonSCKs 1/11/2014 04:51
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Ethanol Exports.
