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| I can carp about it all I want and price won't change.
The only thing I wish a few guys would admit is that while it appears that last year's lottery winners (decent yields with $7.50 corn) are taking it on the chin, the rest of country is doing much better for yield. It wasn't going to take much rain to double yields in many areas compared to last year. I don't know if we have a record, but I don't think we need a record crop either. Being part of the end user side of things, I just don't see much expansion, more like paying bills. The market isn't calling for lots more meat or more ethanol.
That said, price will do whatever it wants. Remember how funds ran the market up even on bearish news? Happened so much we got used to it. Are they going to the other side or more willing to change sides (short then turn around and go long with other people's money) - IDK.
What I think is good advice is to control costs, know your COP pretty well and take advantage of the wild price swings we apparently are still experiencing. I would say don't put your eggs in one basket hoping to win the lottery (again maybe).
It's still a ways from my corn price target, but right on my bean target. I've sold enough beans for fall and my thought is late planted beans haven't yielded well for me (backyarditis) and maybe won't for the country. Maybe I get to sell the rest of my beans this fall for $13+. I see lots of reasons for corn to not rally, but what I think doesn't matter. If it does and I reach my goals, I'm a seller. I'm terrible at gambling and predicting the future, so I try not to.
Oh btw, the FBFM group sent out a newsletter and their data shows the most profitable farms did little more than 'make lots of small mistakes' in marketing and instead focused on controlling costs and maximizing yields. It's their data set and it might not be completely representative - ie. profitable farms tend to have really good ground, but they are not completely wrong either.
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somebody help me with this
