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Reason for market volatility?
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/2/2011 16:24 (#1845445 - in reply to #1845418)
Subject: Simple answer..


The government got out of the storage business.

Look at the 1970's.. exports were the big driver of prices.. times were good.. kind of like today. Then the dollar rallied.. exports fell.. the gov't stepped in by raising loan rates.. which became the market. Get a loan and default.. which built huge stocks into the government.

By 1986 we almost had as much in Government storage/carry over as we raised.

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/wasde//1980s/1986/wasde-12-10-1986.pdf

Carry-in in 86 wheat was 1,905 mln bushels vs a crop of 2,077  In corn it was almost 4 billion bushels.. Couldn't give the stuff away.

Today there is more volatility.. but also more opportunity to profit.. Everything back then was about maintaining a government base so you could collect the government shake down $$$

Nobody really cared about USDA reports.. only what the Loan rates and Set Asides were going to be.

"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

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