| Okay.. So it's only one week in.. and plants are still adjusting.. so Read this with a Grain of Salt.
Here Goes..
Production was down 30 k bbls this week at 1,005 k bbls per day.. but higher than Last Year's 975 k bbls /day this week (SRE's) For the Crop Year to Date (since Sept 1st) we are UP 0.4% at 1,032.7 vs Last year's 1028.2.
On the Ethanol blended.. down to 874 k bbls per day vs 920 last year so down 46 k bbls/day.. Crop year to date down a smidge at 902.8 vs 904.1.
Implied Exports (and Hand Sanitizer.. lol) MORE than makes up for the Loss in Blended Gasoline (so far.. and yes it could be lost to transit..??) at 196.4 k/bbls per day up 18.3% Year on Year.
WASH YOUR HANDS!! lol..
So TOTAL Ethanol Disappearance since Stocks went DOWN 458 k bbls was UP to 1,070.4 k bbls/day Year to date is UP 2% at 1044.5 k bbls/day vs 1023.8 k bbls/day last year.
Gasoline Blended Fell biggly to 8,837 k bbls/day.. putting the blend RATE at 9.89% matching the year to date average 9.89% vs 9.94% last year.. Remember we WON the Lawsuit against the SRE's those parties are challenging but not the EPA!!
We probably got some more rough water to row through before we reach the other side.. unless exports kick in.. to China? Watching what The Tx RR Commission does... and locking in Fuel needs.. for the next three years. | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9/6/2019 | 1023 | | 930 | | 0 | | 22,499 | 59% | | 279.0 | | 1953 | | | 1209.0 | 105,531 | | | 9807 | 9.48% | | 9/13/2019 | 1003 | | 905 | | 11 | | 23,238 | 61% | | 3.4 | | 24 | | | 908.4 | 103,467 | | | 8939 | 10.12% | | 9/20/2019 | 943 | | 935 | | 113 | | 22,500 | 59% | | 226.4 | | 1585 | | | 1161.4 | 97,278 | | | 9346 | 10.00% | | 9/27/2019 | 958 | | 923 | | 0 | | 23,219 | 61% | | -67.7 | | -474 | 3088 | 2540 | 855.3 | 98,825 | | | 9137 | 10.10% | | 10/4/2019 | 963 | | 917 | | 0 | | 21,224 | 56% | | 331.0 | | 2317 | | | 1248.0 | 99,341 | | | 9460 | 9.69% | | 10/11/2019 | 971 | | 942 | | 0 | | 22,061 | 58% | | -90.6 | | -634 | | | 851.4 | 100,166 | | | 9354 | 10.07% | | 10/18/2019 | 996 | | 928 | | 28 | | 21,364 | 56% | | 195.6 | | 1369 | | | 1123.6 | 102,745 | | | 9590 | 9.68% | | 10/25/2019 | 1004 | | 936 | | 53 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 158.9 | | 1112 | 4164 | 2689 | 1094.9 | 103,571 | | | 9784 | 9.57% | | 11/1/2019 | 1014 | | 917 | | 0 | | 21,874 | 58% | | -13.7 | | -96 | | | 903.3 | 104,602 | | | 9145 | 10.03% | | 11/8/2019 | 1030 | | 940 | | 0 | | 20,985 | 55% | | 217.0 | | 1519 | | | 1157.0 | 106,253 | | | 9321 | 10.08% | | 11/15/2019 | 1033 | | 929 | | 4 | | 20,514 | 54% | | 175.3 | | 1227 | | | 1104.3 | 106,562 | | | 9192 | 10.11% | | 11/22/2019 | 1059 | | 930 | | 36 | | 20,277 | 53% | | 198.9 | | 1392 | | | 1128.9 | 109,244 | | | 9204 | 10.10% | | 11/29/2019 | 1060 | | 902 | | 11 | | 20,639 | 54% | | 117.3 | | 821 | 4863 | 2558 | 1019.3 | 109,347 | | | 9032 | 9.99% | | 12/6/2019 | 1072 | | 858 | | 66 | | 21,815 | 58% | | 112.0 | | 784 | | | 970.0 | 110,585 | | | 8882 | 9.66% | | 12/13/2019 | 1064 | | 912 | | 0 | | 21,798 | 57% | | 154.4 | | 1081 | | | 1066.4 | 109,760 | | | 9411 | 9.69% | | 12/20/2019 | 1083 | | 938 | | 0 | | 21,469 | 57% | | 192.0 | | 1344 | | | 1130.0 | 111,720 | | | 9303 | 10.08% | | 12/27/2019 | 1066 | | 884 | | 0 | | 21,034 | 55% | | 244.1 | | 1709 | 4918 | 3490 | 1128.1 | 109,966 | | | 8961 | 9.86% | | 1/3/2020 | 1062 | | 801 | | 0 | | 22,462 | 59% | | 57.0 | | 399 | | | 858.0 | 109,554 | | | 8133 | 9.85% | | 1/10/2020 | 1095 | | 854 | | 25 | | 23,006 | 61% | | 188.3 | | 1318 | | | 1042.3 | 112,958 | | | 8558 | 9.98% | | 1/17/2020 | 1049 | | 864 | | 0 | | 24,031 | 63% | | 38.6 | | 270 | | | 902.6 | 108,213 | | | 8662 | 9.97% | | 1/24/2020 | 1029 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,244 | 64% | | 125.6 | | 879 | | | 998.6 | 106,149 | | | 8793 | 9.93% | | 1/31/2020 | 1081 | | 888 | | 0 | | 23,474 | 62% | | 303.0 | | 2121 | 4987 | | 1191.0 | 111,514 | | | 8933 | 9.94% | | 2/7/2020 | 1033 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,358 | 64% | | 33.7 | | 236 | | | 906.7 | 106,562 | | | 8722 | 10.01% | | 2/14/2020 | 1040 | | 896 | | 0 | | 24,781 | 65% | | 83.6 | | 585 | | | 979.6 | 107,284 | | | 8918 | 10.05% | | 2/21/2020 | 1054 | | 902 | | 35 | | 24,718 | 65% | | 196.0 | | 1372 | | | 1098.0 | 108,728 | | | 9035 | 9.98% | | 2/28/2020 | 1079 | | 897 | | 0 | | 24,964 | 66% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | 3221 | | 1043.9 | 111,307 | | | 9186 | 9.76% | | 3/6/2020 | 1044 | | 919 | | 9 | | 24,334 | 64% | | 224.0 | | 1568 | | | 1143.0 | 107,697 | | | 9449 | 9.73% | | 3/13/2020 | 1035 | | 915 | | 0 | | 24,598 | 65% | | 82.3 | | 576 | | | 997.3 | 106,768 | | | 9696 | 9.44% | | 3/20/2020 | 1005 | | 874 | | 0 | | 24,140 | 64% | | 196.4 | | 1375 | | | 1070.4 | 103,674 | | | 8837 | 9.89% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19/20 MY 29 wks | 1032.7 | | 902.8 | | 13.5 | | 22645.5 | 60% | | 141.7 | | 991.7 | 4206.8 | 2819.3 | 1044.5 | 106,530 | 105,404 | | 9130.7 | 9.89% | | 18/19 MY 29 wks | 1028.2 | | 904.1 | | 4.2 | | 23481.2 | 62% | | 119.7 | | 838.2 | 3751.2 | 3172.0 | 1023.8 | 106,064 | 109,030 | | 9099.2 | 9.94% | | 15 byn target: | | 978.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 466.0 | -3,626 | | | | | 19/20 vs 18/19 | 0.4% | | -0.1% | | 2 | | -3.6% | | | 18.3% | | 18.3% | 12.1% | -11.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -47,143 | bu lower | 0.3% | -0.5% | | | | | -7.7% | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | | | 975 | | 920 | | Last year | 24448.0 | yr ago | | | | -16 | | | 970 | | | | 9124 | 10.08% | | Cheers. Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm |