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Concerning the $3 corn thread below
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John Burns
Posted 6/11/2011 23:49 (#1814659)
Subject: Concerning the $3 corn thread below



Pittsburg, Kansas

I'm going to paste a link to an article on hyperinflation. Telling you right up front in case you don't believe it can ever happen you will not waste your time going to it.

Hyperinflation link.

The reason I am linking to it is because it has a good overall description of hyperinflation along with some examples. The reason I'm bringing up hyperinflation is because if it does occur, even in its mildest form (and there can be vastly different levels as described by the list of countries that have experienced it), it will affect the prices of the things we buy and sell including farm land and grains.

I am not proposing we are going to hyper inflate. Governments can stop that process, much as Paul Volker prevented it from happening around 1980 (we are starting down the inflationary path, so we need to see signs it is going to be stopped). The reason I am giving the link is there are two particular areas that farmers would be affected if it did happen and it is directly related to if we have $3 corn or $30 corn and also related to if we see land prices soaring such that today's price increases look tame or we have the bubble popped.

I am not trying to promote that we are going to have hyperinflation or not. The link is strictly for educational purposes. The point I want to make is that our prices of grains and land, outside of normal supply and demand issues, could be highly dependent on how our monetary system functions in the near future. If congress gets a backbone and gets the budget under control by drastic cuts to come somewhat close to a balanced budget AND if the Fed stands its ground and does not come out with a QE3, 4 , 5 etc. where the bond and stock markets go in the tank and interest rates rise to market clearing levels, then we might very well see a deflationary depression and $3 or less corn. If however, congress does not get the budget under control and the Fed caters to the market and re-election campaign pressures and prints more money, we might be looking at very high inflation levels or heaven forbid, hyperinflation.

My contention is, and the purpose of this post, if we understand the POTENTIAL outcomes based on different possibilities, by having that understanding we might be able to see what is coming at us ahead of time and be able to change our strategy before it is too late. In my opinion, the worst thing a person could do is get married to an idea that things are "this way" and can be no other way, and get blind sided by a fast moving freight train. By keeping an open mind to at least POTENTIAL outcomes other than what we think they will be, it might just be very beneficial by allowing us to change course as conditions dictate. I think with current conditions a person needs to remain nimble in his finances and his thoughts, not getting married to any position or line of thinking.

At present I can see a deflationary depression OR hyperinflation as both being distinct possibilities within the next 5 years. Hopefully neither occur, and that is probably the most likely and the most desirable outcome. But the most likely or the most desirable is not always what we get. So it is my opinion we should be aware of what the possible outcomes COULD be. That is the purpose of this post. Educational purposes only. Not saying hyperinflation is going to happen. Not saying a deflationary depression is going to happen. Saying the potential is that either COULD happen given the current state of affairs.

I am NOT promoting gold ownership, even though the article talks about it. If you don't like gold just ignore that part. Everyone has to decide for themselves what asset allocation they should have for their own situation. I am REALLY NOT promoting this guys web site or the gold he sells because he promotes numismatic coins and in my opinion if you are not an expert in that field, it is very easy to get conned and skinned. I link to his article because it has a pretty good general description of hyperinflation with good examples. If we hyper inflate, this is what could happen. If we go into a deflationary depression the exact opposite will most likely be true. Cash will be king and those with savings accounts, no debt and have been conservative will be rewarded with very good buying power with cheap assets available to buy with their savings. This is what happened in the 80's when Paul Volker saved the dollar and interest rates went sky high. Those with cash and savings bought up the farmland at fire sales for a third what it sold for a couple years earlier.

By knowing the potential outcomes from either situation, a person can watch for signs (and the author gives some in the article) and maybe be a little more prepared for what happens. Like I said, hopefully neither will happen, we will muddle along, and get through this somehow without either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression. Things don't look particularly good to me though, so to be forewarned is to be forearmed. 

John

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