| Grhog - 7/1/2018 21:59
Edit: good luck running randomized simulation on market prices. To many outside forces lurking. Legislation, weather, disease, and the like. Which ones to you weight and how much?
Hi Grhog,
I get what you are saying but you do not need to know anything like you mentioned. It does not matter what weather, disease or legislation is coming down the pipe so no weighting is necessary. Whatever "the new event is" can only release the amount of energy stored. What it can do is store energy for a move in the opposite direction. The other factors that need to be quantified are the other formations in play in price. For instance, to determine price's likely outcome today, you need to consider the move from 2000 to 2012, 2000 to current, from 2012 to current, from 2014 to current, from 2015 to current, 2008 to 2012 and the last months price action because all those moves are pulling or pushing on price in some way. That is the context, and that is what will determine the other factors that will affect price. When we have a bearish report, and get a bullish reaction, the reason you all are fed is that the traders didn't believe the numbers, or it was already priced in or, the latest weather forecast is more important,or, or, or. The fact of the matter - at the level of physics and energy was that the market did not have enough energy to continue in the "logical" direction. It expended itself like a rocket that runs out of fuel, it's only going one place. It happens all the time, the most bearish or bullish news happens at the top or bottom. If the news was the driver, how is it possible that price doesn't continue logically with the news? As "Newtonians" we know that when price turns - literally one tick after the low tick- where its going is already determined. Nothing - and I mean nothing that happens after that changes anything. So knowing that - and that is a fact BTW, why in the world would anybody care about today's news? It is meaningless and all it does is create a bias in your mind- blinding you to whatever other information that might be important from price. And since that is a fact, tariff talk and trump can not be responsible for where we are today because there was no tariff talk on the way up - but it/he will be responsible for where we go later. Of course then you will be fed it SA weather, or acres, or whatever other mind numbing rubbish they want to feed you. You have been conned folks.
Take Care
Edited by J P 7/2/2018 06:54
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JP and the 80% rule
