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| In my humble, and non professional opinion, I think that what people who use "systems" to market are saying is that no market report will ever take a market where it cannot go. Think in terms of boundaries. Of course markets can tank after a bearish report but theyll never go where they do not have the energy to go. likewise despite the short crop in in 2012, markets soon hit their high shortly after. While talking heads were saying this market has all the makings of hitting $10 corn and beyond, the short crop soon was forgotten and we were looking at $4 instead. all the way back in 2006 when beans began to rally, a bearish report has just come out. Why didnt they go lower? Sure you can dig through and find fundamental reasons for higher moves but youre using hindsight and the moment you shorted the bean market because of a crop report you were in trouble. So who knew beforehand that that crop report didnt matter? someone with a better 5 year weather forecast? Doubtful. I watched the markets fall and was still holding way too much corn in 2013. at that moment I realized I needed to study markets differently because Market to Market wasnt doing me any favors. I have had a hard time futures trading since then and have learmed a lot of hard lessons. None of which were the fault of the news, Trump, the USDA or the funds. Instead my failures have come from a lack of discipline. | |
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JP and the 80% rule
