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Stick a Fork in it
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jpartner
Posted 9/12/2017 21:50 (#6244534 - in reply to #6244340)
Subject: RE: Stick a Fork in it


dpilot83 - 9/12/2017 20:59

So what is the pivot we're looking for ultimately? We are pretty sure we know the B and we're anticipating the C (assuming the B is correct). That will form a down sloping fork. So you're saying when the downsloper is formed it will work beautifully or are you saying once the ultimate low is finally formed, then it'll be a good time to use the forks again?

I feel like even after the C of this potential pivot is formed, we're still in a basically horizontal market, possibly still a down sloping market in which case perhaps it's still not the time to use forks?

This is likely not the time or place, but are you of the opinion that we have already hit the ultimate low in corn? I have a hard time believing that we have and while I expect rallies, possibly significant ones, I think that we have not experienced the full wrath of the corn market yet, for reasons that have nothing to do with charts or fundamentals. For me it's the pain scale. I know how much pain the market was able to extract out of wheat producers and it has come absolutely nowhere close to doing that to corn producers so I just can't help but believe we have another leg lower that will possibly be well under $3 on the futures.

Not sure there is a definitive answer there.  I am more formation orientated, than line orientated in these type formations.  I look for the subtle frequencies within the formation to help clear it up.  It is likely all the pivots are there, but almost every fork I see posted is a standard Andrews fork, and in the case of both corn and beans, a modified Schiff will be the most likely to project price.  And depending on what you are framing, there is a plethora of "B" pivots to use.  And if I was gonna lean on a fork, I honestly haven't seen the ones I would use posted. 

Horizontal markets are just tough to use with forks.  Price is just restoring all that energy from the highs to the lows, and its letting the "X" axis catch up.  For me, this is where alot of the 20% failures occur.

Honestly, I would say the chances of the "THE LOWS" being in are virtually zero.  We had a decade long "party", there is a huge price tag for that.  There are lot of projections lower already, we are just taking a breather.  And when it's done, we are likely heading for prices that most do not want to see.  It would take 6.50 corn and 17$ beans to eliminate this probability..  But based purely on the swings structure, I am pretty sure those aren't gonna happen. Price has already blown lines it shouldn't have to keep those lofty targets on the table..for me anyway. I personally expect the next decade to be a tough road, but it will better into the 2030's where ultimately new highs should be struck.But, I am ready and willing to be proven wrong. 

Take care

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