Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | The USDA says that it relies on knowledgeable and experienced observers for their crop condition reports. You have to wonder if those observers aren't subject to the same bias as farmers in that they underestimate better than average yields and overestimate the poorer than average yields. That explains the crop condition reports but it doesn't explain the USDA's crop production estimates. The thing is, if the USDA adjusted current yield prospects on the basis of previous years' crop weather and yields their current estimates should align with the crop condition scores but they don't. Conclusion, the USDA uses some mysterious system to estimate yield & production. I'd love to spy on them and see what system they're using. |
crop ratings tues up or down
