|
South central kansas | I have often wondered why pessimism sells.
Morgan Housel has a list of the reasons for pessimism over optimism.
1. Optimism appears oblivious to risks, so by default pessimism looks more intelligent. But that's a wrong way to view optimists. Most optimists will tell you things will get ugly, that we'll have recessions, bear markets, wars, panics, and pandemics. But they remain optimistic because they set themselves up in portfolio, career, and disposition to endure those downsides. To the pessimist a bad event is the end of the story. To the optimist it's a slow chapter in an otherwise excellent book. The difference between an optimist and a pessimist often comes down to endurance and time frame.
2. Pessimism shows that not everything is moving in the right direction, which helps you rationalize the personal shortcomings we all have. Misery loves company, as they say. Realizing that things outside your control could be the cause of your own problems is a comforting feeling, so we're attracted to it.
3. Pessimism requires action, whereas optimism means staying the course. Pessimism is "SELL, GET OUT, RUN," which grabs your attention because it's an action you need to take right now. You don't want to read the article later or skim over the details, because you might get hurt. Optimism is mostly, "Don't worry, stay the course, we'll be alright," which is easy to ignore since it doesn't require doing anything.
4. Optimism sounds like a sales pitch, while pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you. And that's often the truth. But in general, most of the time, optimism is the correct default setting, and pessimism can be as big a sales pitch as anything – especially if it's around emotional topics like money and politics.
5. Pessimists extrapolate present trends without accounting for how reliably markets adapt. That's important, because pessimistic views often start with a foundation of rational analysis, so the warning appears as reasonable as it is scary.
| |
|
Jim Rogers and his macro outlook
