More usage and an overestimation of supply would be awesome! I don't think the yield is overstated though Jon, at least not in Iowa anyhow; it was YUGE!

Theory/Question for the board: The reason that prices rise when farmers are sold out is two-fold. Firstly, there are far fewer new producer shorts entering the market making less of an anchor. Second, the commercials who hold short positions from purchasing farmer's grain over the following weeks and months short cover as they deliver or use the grain, thusly making the market rise as they purchase futures. Wouldn't that be the reason prices rise? Doesn't that explain seasonality?

Also related, part of why the funds will hold a market up is to make the commercials short cover their hedges at higher prices than they opened the position at. The funds bought low at harvest and the commercials took short positions on the other side at the same time from producer selling. It is in the fund's interest to make the commercials bleed as much as possible. When the commercials are buying in the spring and summer at far higher prices, the further the funds pushed it up, the more they will make. The commercials as true hedgers have the physical offset and make money off the margin but hemorrhage money on their futures side. That is what makes the system work; the billions and billions of dollars every year that commercials give up by looking like the worst traders on Earth because their money is in the margin; sell low and buy high! (If you want to get mad....... that is actually farmer's billions and billions in a round about way)

Is there anything else to it merchandisers or anyone else? That is pretty much it right? Funds want to milk as much as possible from commercials and commercials just want a device to protect against price fluctuation?