Sat's points are valid..

to be fair.. South America is a big area.. just like North America... you can be too dry in Texas.. SW Ks.. Too Wet in North Dakota.. and too Dry in the upper Eastern Cornbelt.. (gulp)

Just like South America can be Too dry in the N/E part of Brazils soybean production belt.. (about 10%..)  Too wet down south../ North Argentina.. and Too Dry S/E of Buenos Aires.. which.. from reports appears to be the case..

( http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/index )

Golly looks like Argentina is flooding..  ( http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Jan10_17-Argentine-Farmers-Conf... )

wow.. cut 300 k hectares.. looks like another cut on the way.. ??

hmmm...

My points are:

2 years ago they hit it out of the park..
Analyst incorporated this as TRENDLINE.. normal..
Is it?

2 years ago the perfect storm.. big crops.. Real low..
Last year.. "whoops" on crops.. Real stabilizing..
This year.. crops..??.. Real firming vs the $

I'm sure there's ALOT more than what I think I know.. which at that "ain't much" so...???

I do know that the SAFRINA crop is mostly unplanted at this time.. it could turn out beau coup wonderful..??

.. or not...???

idk..