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JonSCKs
Posted 1/9/2017 08:55 (#5755301 - in reply to #5755106)
Subject: excellant summary.. VERY GOOD READ!!


THAT was a VERY GOOD POST!!  It hit on ALL the points that I would Try and was ACCURATE and SPOT ON.. about 1,000 x's better than the book posts I would try to convey.. but come up short on.

THANK YOU South Central Kansas! 

Now to build on.. LAST YEAR was the largest bankruptcy's in the Oil Patch in awhile.. with ALOT of people licking their wounds.. still.

To wit the Cramers and Mediots start preaching.. "US SHALES to the RESCUE.."

Okay.. so.. anyone up for ROUND 2??  Anyone at all???

belly up boys.. afterall it's only $$$..

Sandridge shook down some foriegn investors the last go around.. before going BK.. so I assume that $$$ pipeline is done..??  Wanna lose some more???

Now you got to do it with the US Wildcatters.. and they'll be somewhat successful.. "luck of the drill bit."

So US Production is stabilized.. but.. as noted above.. how much sweet spots left... vs decline rates...

???
determines whether we ADD to US production.. OR subtract.. it's stable as of right now.. to up a bit.. with more rigs going back to work so one would think.. improvement.. but then again reseves and Decline rates WILL FACTOR.. whoopsie.. now we're turning down.. from some level.. at some point.. in the future.. tomorrow.. next month.. year.. decade..??

That's it in a nutshell..

Rex for instance.. one of my ethanol picks.. makes it's real $$$ from NAT GAS production.. and got into ethanol as .. well ethanol plants need NAT GAS.. "even better.."

So REX made a good run.. primarily on the return to COLD weather.. "golly ya mean it's NOT gonna be an Indian Summer Winter afterall?"  which coincided with my ethanol call and post election..

"oh"  so your saying that was mostly Nat Gas going back up?.. I see... might wanna take profits on Rex..??

to wit an analyst came out and questioned if even REX could pay it's debt's from the Binge shale drilling years...  "They got a lot left to go.."  ???

Just to add a little more complexity.. Oilmen running EPA.. does ??? to RFS.. and it may be a moot point for #drought2017.. gives us a 2011/2012 repeat..??

What happens if/when we shut down 1 myn bbls per day of ethanol into the US gasoline stream..???

yikes.. let's not talk about that one...

.. but I now assume it will be handled different than the last time.. and it may come at $100 Crude.. unlike the last time..

Then KSA looks like a printing press..  aww.. drought coming can't be that bad.. will it?



Edited by JonSCKs 1/9/2017 09:02
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