If my news is accurate, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman have all shown signs of cutting.  There is an issue with the Kurds in Iraq not wanting to partake in the cut, this only amounts to 10% of Iraq's cut of 210000 so~21000 barrels, not that big of a deal.  Everything I am reading is pointing towards the cut going through.  Non-OPEC will follow suit (probably slowly), and if that still isn't enough to balance the market the Saudi's have said they will cut again.  In 2008-2009 there were 3 rounds of cuts for a total of 4.2 million barrels and that was without Russia and the other non-OPEC countries help.  The Saudi's may have gotten non-OPEC to agree to the cut because if non-OPEC did cut the Saudi's in turn would cut more.  Possibly could be staring at a few rounds of cuts going that way.  There are two reasons for the Saudis to want to do this, to fix their joke of a budget and to sell off part of their state oil company to diversify (I think only an idiot would buy, there is zero recourse if they say, oh, we want it back and take it, like Venezuela), doesn't make sense to sell when oil is $50-60 a barrel.  If Trump follows through on what he said in the campaign he will renew sanctions on Iran, this will pull an additional 1,000,000 barrels of production per day on top of Opec and Non-OPEC cuts and I believe this is why OPEC didn't require Iran to cut anything.  Estimates I am reading say if 1.8 million is cut as planned the supply and demand will equalize in 2nd quarter of 2017.  I am reading a number of articles that are talking $70+ oil this year and possibly 100+ in a few years.  It all depends on the cuts and how long they go.

This is sifting through all the clearly propaganda news put out by guys that are short to try and run the price down to get out of their positions, this for sure happens, if you want a big name there is a youtube video of Jim Cramer explaining how he does it, just search for Jim Cramer Market Manipulation.  It is not unreasonable at all to believe the news is used for market manipulation.

I seriously doubt shale will ramp up like it did before.  Lending has tightened up, many majors and large independents have taken large hedge positions at the $50 a barrel range, so they won't benefit much if at all from existing production on a price run up depending on percentage hedged, which some of the banks were requiring them to do 100%.  There are a lot of companies that shut down exploration and had to pump all out to keep from going broke, with the huge declines the flush production is gone so maybe they are making 50% or less bbls than they were in 2014 if drilling completely shut down and a bank that is trying to protect their investment, you may see a lot of companies limited on exploration because banks want some principle paid back, somewhere around 130+ large companies filed bankruptcy and restructured in the last couple of years.  Shale "efficiencies" are largely cutthroat prices from service companies trying to get any business to keep from going under those service prices will definitely be going up (vertical Kansas wells have come down 25-35% as an example of price cuts) I have heard service price increases have already started to some small degree in the Permian, but that is just hearsay.  I also have a strong suspicion that declines and total reserves are going to fall way short of what was anticipated.  If what I read is true the sweet spots are predominately drilled out in the Bakken and possibly the Eagle Ford as well, leaving only the Permian that has a lot of potential.   Sandridge's shale play in Kansas is ~85% junk, some of those wells are a 90-95% decline first year there are a huge number of wells that will probably never get back their initial investment.  Tapstone bought out Shell's holdings in Kansas and appears to be having much greater success than Sandridge, but I still wouldn't want to invest in any of it.  Unit Petroleum play in Kansas has not turned out well.  They also did a huge number of marmaton wells in the Oklahoma panhandle that were bad.  By all accounts the Permian is far better, but still estimates are only for a 10% increase in production in 2017, I don't think that can make up for the decline elsewhere.  But don't put it past a company to artificial inflate reserves and decline to secure lending regardless of location.