Some of the crop conditions updated this week.  ( https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condi... )

Kansas where the Winter Wheat crop is rated 19% Poor to Very Poor.  
Colorado is rated 25% P/VP vs 4% last year
Oklahoma is 70% rated Short to Very Short on Top soil moisture vs 1% Last year..  47% of the crop is being grazed vs 39% last year and 33% for the 5 year average.

Here's some photo's of the emergence issues north of Dodge City which I took today as I delivered a load of corn to a feedlot.  I complained about the crop being worse than I expected given the crop conditions ratings last fall earlier this week.. to wit today's update is more accurate as you can see below..

The problem was inadequate topsoil moisture to get the crop to emerge in these fields.. as you can see if it had enough moisture to germinate.. there is moisture below to root in.. these shots are about 100 miles to my west.. we are mostly emerged here but you can see things deteriorate as you go west.. yes these shots are the worst which I saw.. about 15 minutes later I passed a field of cattle grazing an established stand of dryland wheat.. so it "varies."

Yes things may improve.. but golly that small exposed wheat.. is gonna be suceptible to the cold unless we get more snow.. again these pictures were taken this afternoon.

fwiw. 

edit add:  I noticed tonight some of the shuttle loaders bumped their basis bids today..  Luck would have it.. I priced some before the rally.. "you're welcome.." 

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