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Reversal in cattle....wow
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Jim
Posted 8/31/2016 00:52 (#5500713 - in reply to #5500203)
Subject: RE: Reversal in cattle....wow


Driftless SW Wisconsin

clicker - 8/30/2016 20:34 So how can a farmer feeder or even cow calf guy stay solvent through these paper trader gyrations, Jim? Today the traders screen was green, but there weren't any correlative increases in the cash price bids...

Darned if I know the answer... but I do know the CME is not doing what it says it wants to be doing in the cattle market: providing a platform for producers and end users to be able to manage risks. It seems to be closer to running the "meat casino" as an article called it recently.

Since, as you put it, there "weren't any correlative increases in cash price bids" to go along with the sudden jump in board feeder contracts, maybe that's more proof that the cash markets know what they are doing and better reflect reality than the board.

As was discussed in another recent thread, no business (such as feedlots) can succeed when there are unexplained 3+% daily gyrations in its raw material (such as calves) costs.

According to their website, at Bloomington today (8/30) good quality fat beef steers and heifers sold for around $1.11. Last Friday's feeder sale, quality 600 lb beef steers sold for around $1.52, Holstein 500 lb steers at around $1.20. These prices look around the same as I saw at their last feeder sale two weeks when I was there. This seems to be where the real world is right now, at least in this part of the country. I see a note that Bloomington expects around 2300 calves at their next feeder sale 9/9. That sale should give another example of where real world prices are. Waukon and a few other sale barns seem to be in similar price ranges.



Edited by Jim 8/31/2016 00:55
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