Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | Kevin, summer temps (and precipitation) anomalies Vs corn yield correlation chart attached. It is for us corn belt geographic area only, correlations are different for state geographic areas, but futures market doesn't care about state stuff. Notice that for corn belt geographic area, precipitation anomaly is inversely correlated with temperature anomaly, so they are not independent predictors. Only need to use temperature anomaly in yield model. Temperature anomaly has strongest correlation (highest Rsquared) with yield.
I'll see if I can fetch the US HRWW data sets from USDA server and run a correlation of US HRWW yield VS US corn belt summer climate anomalies. If successful, I'll post that chart, later.
Your correlation chart for July price VS Dec price is interesting, it shows a correlation slope of 0.5432 with 78% Rsquared.
 (corn_yield VS corn belt summer climate anomaluy.png)
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 corn_yield VS corn belt summer climate anomaluy.png (67KB - 56 downloads)
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