| Man this is bugging me... take November.. | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.78 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of |
10/30/2015 | 969 | | 884 | | 10 | | 18,774 | 49% | | 23.4 | | 164 | 2,283 | 1,796 | 907.4 | 102,477 | | | 9184 | 9.63% | | 11/6/2015 | 982 | | 868 | | 26 | | 18,854 | 50% | | 128.6 | | 900 | | | 996.6 | 103,852 | | | 9388 | 9.25% | | 11/13/2015 | 975 | | 870 | | 0 | | 19,249 | 51% | | 48.6 | | 340 | | | 918.6 | 103,112 | | | 9054 | 9.61% | | 11/20/2015 | 1008 | | 885 | | 0 | | 19,627 | 52% | | 69.0 | | 483 | | | 954.0 | 106,601 | | | 8921 | 9.92% | | 11/27/2015 | 956 | | 876 | | 36 | | 19,997 | 53% | | 63.1 | | 442 | 2,165 | 1,450 | 939.1 | 101,102 | | | 9281 | 9.44% | |
We end the month with 19,997 k bbls after starting with 18,774 so we ADD 1,223 k bbls to storage.. we produce an Average of 982 k bbls per day for the week of 11/6/15.. blend 868 k per day.. thus gain 114 k bbls per day + 26 k bbls per day of imports = x 7 days = 980 k bbls for the week, 735 for the week of 11/13, 861 k bbls for 11/20 and 812 for 11/27..
which equals 3,388 k bbls MINUS the 1,223 build = the 2,165 that I show as the "computed exports" and yet the ACTUAL exports are 1,450 k bbls..
so..
What happened to the other 715 k bbls? which x 42 gallons/bbls x $1.40/gallon is $42 million that went "poof" for the month or at that rate.. $505 myn for the year.
Can't we do better accounting than this?
Is this unaccounted demand?
Is it the denaturant?
Is the Production overcounted?
Blenders input undercounted?
???
Anyone know?
probably a simple answer.. what am I missing? |