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Weekly ethanol report.
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/10/2016 20:32 (#5102668 - in reply to #5101761)
Subject: Where is the missing ethanol going?


Man this is bugging me... take November..

               Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.78conversion Ethanol as % of
10/30/2015969 884 10 18,77449% 23.4 1642,2831,796907.4102,477  91849.63% 
11/6/2015982 868 26 18,85450% 128.6 900  996.6103,852  93889.25% 
11/13/2015975 870 0 19,24951% 48.6 340  918.6103,112  90549.61% 
11/20/20151008 885 0 19,62752% 69.0 483  954.0106,601  89219.92% 
11/27/2015956 876 36 19,99753% 63.1 4422,1651,450939.1101,102  92819.44% 

We end the month with 19,997 k bbls after starting with 18,774 so we ADD 1,223 k bbls to storage.. we produce an Average of 982 k bbls per day for the week of 11/6/15.. blend 868 k per day.. thus gain 114 k bbls per day + 26 k bbls per day of imports =  x 7 days = 980 k bbls for the week, 735 for the week of 11/13, 861 k bbls for 11/20 and 812 for 11/27..

which equals 3,388 k bbls MINUS the 1,223 build = the 2,165 that I show as the "computed exports" and yet the ACTUAL exports are 1,450 k bbls..

so..

What happened to the other 715 k bbls?  which x 42 gallons/bbls x $1.40/gallon is $42 million that went "poof" for the month or at that rate.. $505 myn for the year.

Can't we do better accounting than this?

Is this unaccounted demand?

Is it the denaturant?

Is the Production overcounted?

Blenders input undercounted?

???

Anyone know? 

probably a simple answer.. what am I missing? 

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