| Last week I was guessing that the storms back east had slowed gasoline demand.. which jumps around quite a bit.. and that seems to be bearing out. At 9.122 myn bbls per day we printed the largest weekly supplied number since the holidays. We're still dragging a little bit on the Blenders input of ethanol at 858 k bbls per day.. about 12 k bbls per day below the Sept 1st average.. So let's see what next week brings.. maybe the cheaper CBOB is making inroads.. but maybe not.. ??? The ethanol grind was the highest in about a month.. Since Sept 1st we are still running about 2.5% over yoy.. which would be about 57 myn bushels more ground to date. Keep in mind that we're probably grinding a little more sorghum this year.. it's hard to tell.. but suspect the sorghum grind is up..50..60..70 myn bushels.. but sorghum here is approaching on par with corn values.. so we'll probably start putting more corn back into the mix. The cheaper Sorghum.. till now.. as much as a $.50 per bushel discount to corn.. aided plants that had access to it a couple of weeks ago. Sorghum piles are picked up and most of the rush to move it has faded. Ethanol exports are still up 5.5% yoy.. whereas the implied disappearance.. (production - domestic usage - change in stocks) shows a 12.8% yoy increase.. going.. somewhere.. 5.5% to exports the rest... to... ???? | | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.78 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | | 9/4/2015 | 958 | | 896 | | 0 | | 18,642 | 49% | | 113.4 | | 794 | | | 1009.4 | 101,314 | | | 9017 | 9.94% | | | 9/11/2015 | 961 | | 878 | | 0 | | 18,291 | 48% | | 133.1 | | 932 | | | 1011.1 | 101,631 | | | 8983 | 9.77% | | | 9/18/2015 | 938 | | 892 | | 44 | | 18,900 | 50% | | 3.0 | | 21 | | | 895.0 | 99,199 | | | 9215 | 9.68% | | | 9/25/2015 | 943 | | 881 | | 0 | | 18,782 | 50% | | 78.9 | | 552 | 2,299 | 1,438 | 959.9 | 99,727 | | | 9021 | 9.77% | | | 10/2/2015 | 950 | | 882 | | 17 | | 18,812 | 50% | | 80.7 | | 565 | | | 962.7 | 100,468 | | | 8958 | 9.85% | | | 10/9/2015 | 949 | | 887 | | 0 | | 18,956 | 50% | | 41.4 | | 290 | | | 928.4 | 100,362 | | | 9137 | 9.71% | | | 10/16/2015 | 951 | | 897 | | 0 | | 18,872 | 50% | | 66.0 | | 462 | | | 963.0 | 100,573 | | | 9157 | 9.80% | | | 10/23/2015 | 944 | | 915 | | 0 | | 18,273 | 48% | | 114.6 | | 802 | | | 1029.6 | 99,833 | | | 9343 | 9.79% | | | 10/30/2015 | 969 | | 884 | | 10 | | 18,774 | 49% | | 23.4 | | 164 | 2,283 | 1,796 | 907.4 | 102,477 | | | 9184 | 9.63% | | | 11/6/2015 | 982 | | 868 | | 26 | | 18,854 | 50% | | 128.6 | | 900 | | | 996.6 | 103,852 | | | 9388 | 9.25% | | | 11/13/2015 | 975 | | 870 | | 0 | | 19,249 | 51% | | 48.6 | | 340 | | | 918.6 | 103,112 | | | 9054 | 9.61% | | | 11/20/2015 | 1008 | | 885 | | 0 | | 19,627 | 52% | | 69.0 | | 483 | | | 954.0 | 106,601 | | | 8921 | 9.92% | | | 11/27/2015 | 956 | | 876 | | 36 | | 19,997 | 53% | | 63.1 | | 442 | 2,165 | 1,450 | 939.1 | 101,102 | | | 9281 | 9.44% | | | 12/4/2015 | 993 | | 839 | | 0 | | 19,829 | 52% | | 178.0 | | 1246 | | | 1017.0 | 105,015 | | | 9420 | 8.91% | | | 12/11/2015 | 1000 | | 890 | | 32 | | 20,322 | 54% | | 71.6 | | 501 | | | 961.6 | 105,755 | | | 9220 | 9.65% | | | 12/18/2015 | 973 | | 880 | | 0 | | 20,387 | 54% | | 83.7 | | 586 | | | 963.7 | 102,900 | | | 9185 | 9.58% | | | 12/25/2015 | 992 | | 907 | | 0 | | 20,166 | 53% | | 116.6 | | 816 | 3,149 | | 1023.6 | 104,909 | | | 9395 | 9.65% | | | 1/1/2016 | 996 | | 787 | | 0 | | 21,099 | 56% | | 75.7 | | 530 | | | 862.7 | 105,332 | | | 8159 | 9.65% | | | 1/8/2016 | 1003 | | 807 | | 0 | | 21,345 | 56% | | 160.9 | | 1126 | | | 967.9 | 106,073 | | | 8500 | 9.49% | | | 1/15/2016 | 983 | | 856 | | 0 | | 21,940 | 58% | | 42.0 | | 294 | | | 898.0 | 103,958 | | | 9079 | 9.43% | | | 1/22/2016 | 961 | | 865 | | 0 | | 21,436 | 57% | | 168.0 | | 1176 | | | 1033.0 | 101,631 | | | 8941 | 9.67% | | | 1/29/2016 | 959 | | 815 | | 0 | | 22,362 | 59% | | 11.7 | | 82 | 3,208 | | 826.7 | 101,419 | | | 8341 | 9.77% | | | 2/5/2016 | 969 | | 858 | | 0 | | 22,956 | 61% | | 26.1 | | 183 | | | 884.1 | 102,477 | | | 9122 | 9.41% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 792 | pace | | | | | | | | | 15 to date | 970.1 | | 870.2 | | 7.2 | | 19907 | | | 83 | | 578 | 2316 | ?? | 953 | 102,597 | 2,360 | myn bu | 9044 | | | | 14 to date | 946.6 | | 852.8 | | 0.9 | | 18528 | | | 73 | | 512 | 2196 | 1785 | 926 | 100,104 | 2,302 | myn bu | 8928 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2492.1 | 57 | myn bu | | | | | 15 vs 14 | 2.5% | | 2.0% | | | | 7.4% | | | 12.8% | | 12.8% | 5.5% | ?? | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | | 1.3% | | | | | | | 50618.0 | | | | Calendar Yr: | | 4704.4 | | 32931.0 | | 18154.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 14881.7 | | | | | | | gallons: | | 1383.1 | 32,844 | 23,649 | 72.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 762.468 | | | | | | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Cheers. |
Weekly ethanol report.
