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Ethanol stocks vs Crude Oil Stocks.. 144 Rotary Rigs now parked.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/30/2015 09:28 (#4349432 - in reply to #4349388)
Subject: The VALUE of Octane WORKS over seas also..


What has changed?

Distillate is a PREMIUM to Gasoline UNLIKE before.. this switched.. about a decade ago on the Crude Boom.. as the BTU's for the $$$ matters.. there's more BTU's in distillate and thus it's worth more..

SO.. Refineries switched from Max Gasoline to Max Distillate output... thus there's less 91 octane PREMIUM Gasoline to MAKE 85 Spec with.. "relatively speaking.."  USe to be PREMIUM Gasoline was worth more then Distillate.. (okay Distillate is falling today also.. but will it stay down???)

So the SOLUTION was to Blend Ethanol at 112 Octane (or 114 or whatever..?  MORE Octane..) to BLEND UP the now JUNK Gasoline.. while telling everyone that Ethanol is junk.. then therefore CHEAP..

"$$$" going and coming on that deal...

So THIS WORKS.. domestically as well as Over seas.. and hence Exports (yes some are to mandated use countries) are responding..

U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 
YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
  20103245191,1539734143876037079298349301,717
  20111,3641,4252,0032,8651,7431,6043,0361,2462,5252,8953,6344,117
  20121,8191,7851,9921,7751,3971,4101,5191,2061,1911,2849651,313
  20131,5181,0171,3129679527968301,1821,2991,2062,1341,525
  20142,0541,6052,1391,5851,2631,4311,6001,2921,3541,888 

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

YOY Exports of Ethanol are higher.. for 2014 vs 2013.. 14,738 k bbls  for 2013 vs 16,211 k bbls THROUGH OCTOBER with 2 more months..  THAT I calculate..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=530931&posts=8#M4346019

could be another 2,800 per or 5,600 or 21,811'ish pace for 2014... with no slowdown on the horizon..

We have to export ethanol to get to USDA's projection of how much corn gets used for ethanol.

"And we are..."

The Trade does not understand this... the Trade thinks this is going to slow down.. it's not.. it's going to increase.



Edited by JonSCKs 1/30/2015 09:30
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