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Big Exports.
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JonSCKs
Posted 10/23/2014 14:15 (#4141544 - in reply to #4141242)
Subject: We got enough..


I think we are balanced..  We are slowly bumping dryland Sorghum acres probably at the expense of Wheat acres.. both are export driven.. Last time I looked there was a $.70 premium to the Sorghum at the gulf over Corn.. but as we get deeper into Sorghum harvest...???  Maybe that narrows in..??

There's a bookoo amount of sorghum here in the Eastern Half of the state that other than the train loaders... I don't expect a lot of pull from out west.  The feedlot that I just hauled to west of Dodge is grinding BOTH Corn and Sorghum.. and at that location Corn is the premium..  In order for Sorghum to get to Export.. you got to find a terminal and pay $$$ for cars which as I understand it are not cheap.. Don't know what they are worth here but at $3 k per car premium for Dakota anything.. that appears to be sucking some capacity as a person would expect.

Here at the farm.. Corn is premium to Sorghum.. 45 miles to my east at Hutch Terminal.. Sorghum is about a $.20.. $.25 premium.. so.. it's all working.. The thing about the corn is that it is USED HERE.. 20 miles to the feedlot.. 35 to the ethanol plant.. or 50 to the next feedlot etc.. in about ANY direction.  The Sorghum is pulling from the gulf.. and there's only a limited supply of trains.. possibly Catoosa by barge to get it there..

Out west by the time you get it loaded on a train.. it trades at a discount to corn.. so if you don't like it "build storage" and "maybe" it will sort itself out later.. assuming a) that China keeps buying.. and b) the trains ever catch up..??  However, I suspect that guys are gonna plant more next year.. even thinking I might give the nasty itchy weed a shot on my farm.. "maybe."  (golly do we REALLY HAVE to..??)

All good problems to have.. they are just now starting to pile Sorghum on the ground out west.. so.. evidently it's still at "poor step-child" status.. in spite of the exports..  "Can't a guy get a LITTLE RESPECT?"

All in all we are balanced.. no big piles.. (yet) nobody running out either.. just about to fill bins here as harvest is wrapping up.. "good enough."

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