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Alberta, Canada | I'm a little closer to home than Roy & Chad, but I'm in agreement. From what an auction mart here in Alberta told me, was that as of mid-February, Alberta had already lost 1/3 of the cattle #'s from February 2007. In one year, the cattle numbers in Alberta dropped by over 30%. And judging by the sales, grain prices, and just from what people round here've been telling me, there's an even larger percentage still yet to get out within the next several months. I would not be surprised to hear that by this fall, cattle numbers will have dropped 40-50% from 2007.
On top of that, as Rosco mentioned..... hay land is getting plowed under left right and center. In addition to that, this spring is looking to be a summer of drought in the making. Hay prices in turn, are going to sky rocket, and livestock producers won't be able to afford it. In turn, more cattle producers are going to go belly up, culling cattle for next to nothing, and pretty soon there'll be no hay and no cattle. You be the judge of what's gonna happen to cattle prices then.
It all depends on how long term you're willing to stay loyal for. I'm not even so sure that cattle prices are going to depend solely on grain prices coming back down. I think that with so many people getting out of it, those few that can afford to feed em might just be able to turn enough profit to stay in.
I just got back from a sale..... as predicted hay & livestock equipment went for very low, grain equipment went for very high.
I'm not so sure now is the time to get into grain. Simple buy low / sell high philosophy. Sounds like now is the time to get INTO cattle, not get out of it and get into grain. I think right now is the time to be ALREADY IN grain.... Or maybe you already are? Perhaps you're a mixed farm?
Personally, we're just a small cattle farm (calving 125 each spring), and we don't have any hay or crop land. My game-plan for the future, is to try and secure as much hay land in my area as possible, and then sell out when cattle prices pick up. Which will fail miserably, of course.
-Josh | |
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beef markets any upside?
