Wow I assumed that we would hit 5% harvested today.. It only came in at 4%.. So I updated my burn rate table.. Again we are on pace to burn through about 336 myn bu per week.. and we only took in about a third of that this week. Given the lateness of the crop.. I assume that we will still have maybe 5% out in the fields by December 1st.. At this pace we'll just barely breech the 10 byn bushel mark for only 2 weeks. This is pretty raw.. a WAG.. and I probably need to look back and refine it some more but.. I updated it to ACTUAL progress from last year.. before I started this year's version.. We got ANOTHER basis bump today "here" so SOMEONE isn't seeing the bushels that they expected.. and we're 18% done...?!? http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-09-15-2014.pdf | 2014/15 | USDA | 91.6 | | | | | | | | | | Quarterly | | | | | PP | -0.47 | 91.13 | 0.92 | 83.8396 | 171.7 | 14395.3 | | June 1st | 3854 | | | Stocks | 12/13 | 13/14 | 14/15 | | | | | | | | Add | | | | Cumulative | Sept 1st | 989 | 821 | 1108 | | | | | Stocks | % Harvested | Harvested | Total | Use | Stocks | Demand | | Dec 1st | 8033 | 10452 | 9771 | | | | | | Total | that week | bushels | | | | | | Mar 1st | 5400 | 7008 | | | This | Week | | | | | 14395.3 | | 198 | 2213 | | | June 1st | 2764 | 3854 | | | | 46 | | | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 7 | 2220 | 195 | 2025 | | | | | | | | August 1st | 47 | | | 0.0020 | 0.0015 | 22 | 2047 | 195 | 1852 | | | | | | | | | 48 | | | 0.0040 | 0.002 | 29 | 1881 | 195 | 1686 | | | | | | | | | 49 | | | 0.0075 | 0.0035 | 50 | 1736 | 200 | 1536 | | | Q 4 useage/wk | | | | | 50 | | | 0.0120 | 0.0045 | 65 | 1601 | 215 | 1386 | | | 2013 | 2014 | | | | | 51 | | | 0.0180 | 0.006 | 86 | 1472 | 225 | 1247 | | | | | | | | | 52 | | | 0.0250 | 0.007 | 101 | 1348 | 240 | 1108 | | | 206 | 208 | | | | Sept 1st | 1 | | 1108 | 0.0325 | 0.0075 | 108 | 1216 | 280 | 936 | 280 | | 2678 | 2702 | | | | | 2 | | | 0.04 | 0.0075 | 108 | 1044 | 280 | 764 | 560 | | | | | | | | 3 | | | 0.06 | 0.0175 | 252 | 1016 | 315 | 701 | 875 | | Harvested | | | | | 4 | | | 0.09 | 0.0325 | 468 | 1169 | 320 | 849 | 1195 | | prior to | | | | | Oct 1st | 5 | | | 0.13 | 0.04 | 576 | 1424 | 330 | 1094 | 1525 | | Sept 1st | 360 | | | | | 6 | | | 0.23 | 0.1 | 1440 | 2534 | 340 | 2194 | 1865 | | | | | | | | 7 | | | 0.35 | 0.12 | 1727 | 3921 | 340 | 3581 | 2205 | | 3rd wk | 828 | | | | | 8 | | | 0.48 | 0.13 | 1871 | 5453 | 350 | 5103 | 2555 | | | | | | | Nov 1st | 9 | | | 0.62 | 0.14 | 2015 | 7118 | 350 | 6768 | 2905 | | | | | | | | 10 | | | 0.74 | 0.12 | 1727 | 8495 | 360 | 8135 | 3265 | | Q 1 useage/wk | | | | | 11 | | | 0.83 | 0.09 | 1296 | 9431 | 360 | 9071 | 3625 | | 2014 | 2013 | | | | | 12 | | | 0.89 | 0.06 | 864 | 9935 | 370 | 9565 | 3995 | | | | | | | | 13 | | | 0.93 | 0.04 | 576 | 10141 | 370 | 9771 | 4365 | | 336 | 331.4 | | | | Dec 1st | 14 | | 9771 | 0.95 | 0.02 | 288 | 10058 | 375 | 9683 | 4740 | | 4365 | 4308.2 | | | | | 15 | | | 0.96 | 0.01 | 144 | 9827 | 315 | 9512 | 5055 | | 30.32% | 29.93% | | | | | 16 | | | 0.97 | 0.01 | 144 | 9656 | 310 | 9346 | 5365 | | | | | | | | 17 | | | 0.98 | 0.01 | 144 | 9490 | 250 | 9240 | 5615 | | | | | | | Jan 1st | 18 | | | 0.99 | 0.01 | 144 | 9384 | 205 | 9179 | 5820 | | Total Use til Jan 1st | | | | 19 | | | 1.00 | 0.01 | 144 | 9323 | 200 | 9123 | 6020 | | | | | | | | 20 | | | | | | 9123 | 200 | 8923 | | | | | | | | 
Corn only 4% harvested. Probably less than a byn bushels in store.
