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| There are some variables to consider. Our local elevator is down to just enough corn to start the dryers and supply a local hog farmer. Last year we had a decent yields yet there was little backup at the elevator. I think part of it is the switch to trucks and semis unloading so much faster and even us small guys have semis (small and cheap though). Anyway, we could have great yields, get started a little early (25% moisture) and not have an issue with the elevator. However, if it becomes a problem my priorities shift to using the dryer that has sat since 2009 and storing some. Hopefully the dryer and bin project can wait until next summer (too many pig things going on right now).
That's just logistics though. I'm still considering making cash sales in addition to presales and looking for a pretty deep harvest low to reown using calls (or similar strategy that's far cheaper than elevator and probably my own storage - as has been suggested by others). I 'feel' like the downward momentum will get to an oversold position where profit taking becomes more 'fashionable' and prices will rise on positions being bought back/sold. It would be nice if the "rubber band stretch" sprung us back around $4, but I'm probably more in the camp of hoping for 20 bushel better average than my APH lowering my break even price. | |
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Does anyone here actually talk about marketing stratagy and not just yield and price?
