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Agtrader, Your History this year (after your comment to me this morning)
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NDCommodities
Posted 11/16/2012 13:22 (#2700523)
Subject: Agtrader, Your History this year (after your comment to me this morning)


Pardon me people for the length But I have heard many comments about his history and 'recommendations'. So I did some "CTRL-F" searching and went back to May and started researching. Now don't get me wrong, I am normally a bear as well. And sold some to early this year, and some not quick enough. But all in all, happy with how we have done.

I will do a price update periodically through this post for historical ease.

5-11 Corn set its low 4.99, Wheat bottomed the following day at 6.29 1/2(using Chicago), and Soybeans were at 13.25 and eventually pushed in late May down to just below $12.50.

AgTrader you posted on 5-11 laughing at people for wanting $8 corn and $20 beans. You then disappeared for a MONTH until you appeared saying you are beginning to like Wheat… and you Still don’t like beans here.
This was on 6-9, Corn was at 5.25, Wheat was around 6.70, and Soybeans were still at 13.25

You disappeared till 6-24 when you laughed at people talking about “how bad it is” outside saying you can tell what countries will cancel purchases. But in the same day you make a post “hard to be short anything with a brown lawn”
6-24 Corn 5.60, Wheat 7.15, and Beans just about to hit $14.

But you never came out and said ‘I think we are going up, you should get long’
You made a blanket statement you could find in a farmer’s almanac. Never said “we are going up, be ready guys”
A man also asked you if you should to the Long 2 Wheat, short 1 Bean spread. You said it’s a ‘no brainer’
So pay attention to prices from now on.

7-3 you come back and make a post (gloating) that your “wheat spread is WINNING”. Which it was in good order.
7-9 You said ‘selling out of your wheat @ 8.56. So according to this, you took roughly $1.50 out of 2 wheat contracts, and made $15,000. But you still have your short bean on against it which is roughly down $7,500. YOU NEVER CLEAR UP THIS TRADE. You also said ‘watch out for PFG liquidations’ seemingly bearish statement.

7-11 “wheat is still champ” and “grain prices will keep going up” – This is your first “bullish" reference in grains as a whole. You make another post saying Demand is strong, but almost sound bearish in the way you say it. (long term assumption maybe)?
7-11 – Corn $7, Wheat $8.30ish, and Soybeans are at 15.15ish. Beans and corn had HUGE ranges that day.

7-19 – Short beans at 16.45 (you still have your SHORT BEAN ON FROM YOUR WHEAT SPREAD… never advised pulling that, it’s now down roughly $2.50, erasing almost all your gains from your long 2 wheat).

7-23 You said you are going to ‘ride this thing ALL THE WAY DOWN” – ie sounding like markets are done for.
7-23 Corn Hit $8, closed at 7.85, Wheat MADE ITS HIGH 9.53, closed at 9.20, and Soybeans 16.25-15.50 range. Closed at 15.65

7-24. You said you are buying some beans if we hit 15.35-15.40. You do, and do well.
You said you were ‘covering your ‘adds’ and news is baked in, done at 15.55 from the sound of it.
So you made a bearish statement the same day you are long for a bounce… Ok, lets roll with it

7-29 You are ‘covering longs’ at 16.40. You made a nice trade.
7-29 Corn $7.94, Wheat $9.10, Soybeans $16.44

8-1 Someone asked you if you should go long here. You didn’t respond

8-10 You made a statement “the hard trade is short this report” subsequently brag when the market tanks after making record highs in corn. What is interesting, is where you were positioned and if you rode to 8.49, or what not and stayed in.
8-10 Corn makes $8.49 high, closes $8.10, Wheat $9.02, Soybeans $16.45.

9-3 You show up after another MONTH ABSENCE… and say “Shorting beans here for the first time in ALONG TIME @ 17.79”.
- YOUR LAST POST WAS 8-10. You said the hard but smart move that you made was SHORT ALL 3. C/B/W…. How is this your first time if you were laughing that all 3 needed to be shorted a month earlier?
9-4 corn $8.05, Wheat $8.90, Soybeans make their high at $17.89, close at $17.66

9-4 – you showed back up later in the day AGAIN to say “covered MOST on gap fill @ 17.56 meaning you made 23 cents. But you ‘left a runner on’.
- Also made a confusing statement about targets at 18.19-18.26, and something about 17.00. (confusing as always)

9-17 – Show back up and say ‘rut roh beans’ (Scooby bearish?) But if you are this smart and cocky, how come you covered most at $17.56?
9-17 Corn $7.50, Wheat $8.80, Soybeans Down limit at $16.69

9-20 – Show up again to say you are closing your “Runners” here. Well was it ‘runner’ or ‘runners’? Cause on 9-4 you covered MOST at 17.56 and left "a" runner; kind of contradictory?
9-20 Corn $7.50, Wheat $8.80, Soybeans down big $16.18

You then left again, after closing ALL YOUR SHORTS in beans.
10-2 You say the “14.80 gap in beans is a given, although you are turning booolish”.
10-2 Corn $7.55, Wheat $8.75, Soybeans $15.60

10-3 You say “The short of the earth is catching on fire”
This may be so, but you haven’t specifically traded anything since your little bean trade near the high. And your occasional “Runner” that you show up to cover when it moves right.

After this you disappear until NOVEMBER when you said you ‘still like beans to fill the $14.80 gap.” So you rode this supposed bean you never covered through the whole month of bouncing back towards $16 and were waiting for your gap?
11-1 Corn $7.50, Wheat $8.70, Beans $15.60

11-11 You said “sell everything, I have been telling you this since $15.60. You then showed up on 11-13 Saying you are covering your $15.60 beans at $13.91… WHEN DID YOU SELL BEANS AT $15.60? I don’t see that recommendation in your history? You did then say you were buying the bounce to $14.

So that leads us to today; November 16th, 2012. You are now cocky again about this falling and what not. Which is where I called you out on buying beans at $13.90, and you laughed saying “I am a Trader… you should stick to farming”. And with that you referenced selling out in the $14.30’s… But I am sorry, between Nov 11 and Nov 16th Jan beans didn’t reach $14.30 (but you did almost get the 13.72 perfect today, but missed by a tick (so far, we will probably get there eventually). So now I ask, where is the track record of this ‘amazing trader’ that is waving his d1ck around a forum trying to get positive attention whenever it works for him?

So during this last 6 month period you have collectively – Laughed at people for being long since Corn hit 4.99, periodically made a trade or two that did do well. Made about 100 random statements that can be taken as thoughts or trades, you seem to take them as the latter when they work! You have also rode beans up $5, corn up $3.50, and Wheat up $3. Of that you captured a good bounce on wheat, and a little sell off on beans. With that, you supposedly run around cocky because ‘the markets are falling’ but you really have no concrete long record of your trades here.

Don’t get me wrong, I am an eternal pessimist just like you, but I don’t need to get support of random strangers to fluff my feathers, happy clients in the long run is what matters. Of which, our clients are beyond happy with our corn/wheat marketing this year. But we are getting bent over on the last of our beans. We didn’t think this thing was going to go as nuts as it did, but were still able to do well regardless (sold coming back to 7.75, not on the way up, disappointing. But had I had my way, I would have been sold out before $8 anyway). I was bearish at the start as well and am still bearish long run.

PS. You should probably cover that Short bean you have been holding on that wheat spread since June 24th. It is finally in the black now, that spread REALLY WORKED!


Edited by NDCommodities 11/19/2012 14:00
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