|
| we got the planting intentions and qtrly stocks out in the open what if anything can we look forward to:
lets start with the big winner on the reports CORN
Planting is expected to come in over 4 million acres short of last year which is a big number ( spread across the entire corn belt ) and is a game changer at this point, To me a much more fascinating number is the derived 3rd qtr. disappearance in the stocks number if that number is correct it would imply that we used about 500mb more corn in the 3rd atr. than most expected, could be that we missed some disappearance in the last qtr. stocks estimate. but either way dropping carryout in 23-24 by 250mb on April S&D report would not shock me. those two things put a little different look to next years carryout and should be supportive until we get more clarity on those issues.
Now to SOYBEANS
Not nearly as friendly IMHO - I had stated that my hope was for qtrly stocks to come in with a bullish number that did not happen as they were mostly bearish. Acres were up but one might say not as much as some feared but still up 3 Million acres and those acres seem to come out of areas that were heavy corn on corn acres and we all know how beans react if you put them on 5 years of corn planed acres. Stocks in all positions were up 9 % over last year and stocks on farms were up 24% vs last year, this could be a double edged sword as perhaps farmers are high on their estimates of beans in the bin ( traditionally beans don't bushel out from bin storage) but either way qtrly disappearance is indicated down 13% with much of that being caused by poor exports ( maybe indicating bigger Brazilian 22/23 crop ) crush in this country is running ahead of expectations and maybe that keeps carryout from growing while we find out if the on farm stocks are smaller than thought. basis for beans in our neck of the woods is not favorable at this time it would be nice if China would come knocking for 5 or 10 cargos to see what it would do to basis and a board that seems to want to stay in the 12.00 range.
So heres to hoping that the corn bullishness can light a bit of a fire and get the funds to do some short covering and the Farmers head the call to wait until you see the whites of their eyes!!! | |
|
After the dust settles what do we have to look forward to
