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Central Missouri | To an extent you are both correct. What we have today though vs 40 years ago is a south american juggernaught. There are now 2 corn harvests in the world about 6 months apart. It eases the anxiety for the importer of them running out.
There are 2 other factors one being that we are now once again just like in the 80,s and 90’s the supplier of last resort mainly because of tension with China.
The other thing is where we are at in this era of price. In the last era 72-08 look at how many big highs were made in the first half vs last half. Then look at this current era 08-roughly 42. We are half way through it. Look at how many big highs we have had. What shoukd we expect last half of this era if history repeats.
I think this occurs because when price resets itself higher like in 72-74 and 08-12 roughly it does so because of increased demand. The world spends the first half of the era catching up to demand and spends the second half over producing.
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Odds December corn hits $5
