South central kansas | I would like it to be a relatively short, severe drop that forces a rapid reset of land costs, but I don't expect that. I expect it will be a bit slower bleeding that goes on for multiple years until enough land goes idle to clear supplies. It's just human nature refusing to let go of the dreams of high prices.
I tend to believe, barring any major shocks that it will be a slow multi-year slow bleeding as well. That is not to say it will be only one way...down, but will be punctuated by price rises, but in general they will fall short of the previous high.
If history is any guide, (based on commodity cycles) which IMO it will be but with a firm understanding it is a probabilistic forecast.
The following is from the Bank of Canada looking at commodity cycles, it short and easy to understand.
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/boc-review-autumn16-buyuksahin.pdf
Edited by zenfarm 10/6/2017 10:38
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