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South Central Iowa | I am a chartist who considers the bounds fundamentals can place on a market Don, not purely a technician. I am bullish insofar as I do not believe that we break our current 5-6 month uptrend until our planting and weather season; so May-July and we'll see what happens. We may be down to open this week and that wouldn't surprise me. I don't believe that we break the January and yearly low of $9.92'6. I doubt we break $10.17, although I will add the caveat that we might in the March, but not in the May. I will buy at $10.18 May if the action still looks favorable. Open interest has already rolled and options expire this week; might be a time for some tricky action that would induce shorts by breaking a point but not actually when a rolled continuous chart is brought into play. That would catch some off-guard thinking a major point has been broken and buying would squeeze those shorts to the point of covering far above.
Okay, BULL TROLL! You'll like this Don. I will admit, this is sort of a joke chart, but only sort of. Maybe there is a cyclical chartists out there, but anyway, a little stab at it. We were in a 4 year up cycle 09-12, a 4 year down cycle 13-16, and now begin a 4 year up 17-20. This chart obeys speed lines and the channel Fibonacci's. This bar pattern is modeled after the rise in 09-12; it is a literal copy. The start low of that time was $7.76 and the start low of ours is $9.34 for a difference of $1.58. The high in 2012 was $17.89 and the high in July 2020 will be $19.47, a difference of $1.58 where it will respect the longstanding speed line and the time constraints. I call it 4 years, but it is actually 46 months. Each down and up cycle is 46 months long. It obeys Fibonacci's and seasonality on it's climb higher. The one thing is, we need a fundamental kicks start this year; whether that is less acres and greater demand, another SA harvest issue, or a drought of our own. We need a fundamental kickstart.
Like I said, it is only for fun, but in my view, a fundamental spark can set this in motion. You'll notice our July 2017 high, harvest low, and higher floor. That scenario would be: lower acres, anything under 87 million, an actual weather disruption of a sort (not Captain Kirk disaster but something, besides, "it's due" right?), and finding out later, that although it wasn't bad, it still wasn't great on production. Then 2018 is the real deal and heading in with a short crop!
Just for fun and interest guys, don't base anything off of it.
 (BullTroll.png)
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 BullTroll.png (109KB - 76 downloads)
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Logical question for Sat
